We do not know exactly when it might happen, but establishing a colony on Mars is clearly part of humanity’s plans. Elon Musk considers 2029 to be the earliest possible date, while most researchers believe it will not occur before 2050. However, it is not too early to start thinking about how many people would be needed to establish and operate a colony on the Red Planet.
In a recent study, researchers from George Mason University found that only 22 people are needed to establish a colony on Mars. This number is significantly lower than findings from other studies. Previously, researchers estimated that at least 100 people would be required. However, the authors of this new study assert that their assumptions are more accurate and practical than earlier research.
Anamaria Berea, the study’s author, a professor of data science and computation, told The Register: “Groups of people are complex systems where the outcome is not simply the sum of the parts, but rather a synergy.”
In 2012, Elon Musk proposed sending 80,000 people to Mars within 15 to 20 years to complete the colonization plan, but now that seems impossible, as Musk has yet to successfully send humans beyond the atmosphere. (Photo: ZME).
In 2022, a research paper concluded that 110 people are needed to establish a self-sustaining colony on Mars. However, this is not the only estimate. In 2003, another study indicated that 100 people would be required. However, this may be excessive.
Berea and her team at George Mason University stated that previous papers did not consider the social and psychological aspects of those initiating the colonization process. They also mentioned that earlier studies did not take into account the interactions among individuals in space.
To find a more practical answer, the researchers created a simulation model of a Mars colony. Specifically, this simulation focused on the number of people needed to create a viable colony. The researchers also examined which features would contribute to its success. They utilized data from previous studies, including surveys conducted by astronauts at the International Space Station.
The researchers ran five simulations, each representing 28 years of colony life on Earth. For each simulation, they varied factors such as the number of people and the different personalities of the participants. They found that 22 is the minimum number required to build and maintain a colony on Mars. Ultimately, the research team also discovered that individuals with pleasant personalities are more likely to thrive in the colony and contribute positively to its overall survival.
The environment on Mars is extremely harsh; facing such conditions presents technical challenges that differ entirely from those on Earth. Successfully establishing a sustainable living base on Mars involves overcoming numerous technical hurdles. (Photo: Grunge).
The personality trait of agreeableness is one of the five key aspects in the Five-Factor Personality Model, also known as the Big Five personality traits. This model is commonly used in psychology to describe human personality and is a widely accepted framework for understanding personality differences.
Agreeableness refers to the extent to which a person can be kind, cooperative, tolerant, and considerate. Individuals with high levels of agreeableness tend to be trusting, empathetic, and willing to help others, while those with low levels may be more skeptical, critical, or competitive.
This model further suggests that individuals who are disagreeable and competitive are more likely to fail in the task of colonizing Mars and may also die earlier than other members. Consequently, this poses a risk to the overall success of the mission.
Sending a large number of people and equipment to Mars will require numerous launches and launch vehicles. Current rocket technology and the aerospace industry remain expensive, and the cost of transporting rockets remains high. (Photo: Allthatsinteresting).
It is always difficult to predict how humans will behave. This is especially true in an environment as different and challenging as Mars. Overall, however, the research provides us with some valuable insights. This data can be applied when ready to send humans to Mars. The study emphasizes the importance of focusing on the significance of differing personalities and how those personalities interact with each other. We may or may not begin building a colony on Mars in the coming years – but being prepared certainly won’t hurt.
