According to a new report, global temperatures could rise by up to 4°C by the end of this century, despite commitments made at the COP26 climate summit.
Researchers from the University of Exeter and the UK Met Office analyzed prevailing policies worldwide and found that, under the “current trajectory”, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as outlined in the Paris Agreement is gradually slipping out of reach.
Professor Richard Betts, the lead researcher, stated, “The agreements made at COP26 in Glasgow (Scotland, UK) have ‘reduced the likelihood’ of warming reaching 4°C, but this remains a possibility.”
If this occurs, the number of heat-related deaths in the UK is projected to rise from 2,000 annually at present to 7,200 by the 2050s and 12,800 by the 2080s.
The report, the UK Government’s third Climate Change Risk Assessment, concludes that climate change is already posing significant risks to the natural environment, infrastructure, human health, communities, and businesses in the UK.
Sea levels will continue to rise in the context of global warming. (Photo: Sky News).
The UK also faces concerns related to security, migration, and supply chains. All these risks will increase if warming reaches 2°C and even more so at 4°C.
The report states: “Forecasts aligned with current global policies suggest that warming could range from 2°C to 5°C by the end of this century, depending on the rate of greenhouse gas emissions and the climate system’s response to these emissions.
This will lead to more frequent extreme weather patterns and events, increasing risks for people and biodiversity, with higher temperatures resulting in even greater risks.“
Limiting global warming to lower levels is still achievable if global emissions are rapidly reduced to zero or negative. However, even if global warming is successfully limited to around 1.5 to 2°C, weather patterns will still differ from recent decades, and sea levels will continue to rise to some extent.
The report calls for the UK to take more action to prepare for these impacts.
