American scientists have introduced a unique test that allows anyone over the age of 50 to gauge their chances of survival over the next four years. The accuracy of this test is as high as 81%.
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| It is possible to predict survival time. (Image: askforresearch, VNE) |
The “fortune teller” test is the result of research conducted by the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center. It consists of 12 simple questions concerning demographic factors, gender, age, health conditions, and takes just a few minutes to complete.
To develop these 12 “life predictions”, the research team, led by Sei J Lee, collected data from nearly 20,000 individuals over 50 years old from 1998 to 2002. They categorized participants into three groups based on demographics, gender, age, and health conditions (such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension), and their ability to perform daily activities like dressing, shopping, and managing finances. Subsequently, the team recorded the number of deaths by December 31, 2002, analyzed the factors related to their deaths, and compiled key variables into a formula to calculate mortality rates. According to Lee, this test could serve as a valuable diagnostic tool for doctors in assessing patients’ health status.
The list of 12 questions is as follows:
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Age: 60-64 (1 point), 65-69 (2 points), 70-74 (3 points), 75-79 (4 points), 80-84 (5 points), over 85 (7 points).
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Gender: Male (2 points).
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Body Mass Index (BMI): under 25 (1 point).
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Diabetes: 2 points.
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Cancer (including mild skin cancers): 2 points.
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Chronic lung disease that limits activity or requires home oxygen: 2 points.
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Heart failure due to congestion: 2 points.
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Smoking in the past week: 2 points.
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Difficulty bathing due to health or memory issues: 2 points.
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Difficulty managing money, paying bills, or tracking expenses due to memory or health issues: 2 points.
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Difficulty walking due to health: 2 points.
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Difficulty pushing or pulling large objects like a chair due to health: 1 point.
Score and mortality risk. The higher the score, the greater the risk of death.
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0-5 points: under 4% risk of death.
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6-9 points: 15% risk of death.
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10-13 points: 42% risk of death.
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14 points or more: 64% risk of death.
Mỹ Linh (according to IOL)
