How many opportunities do you have to live an additional 4 years?

American scientists have introduced a unique test that allows anyone over the age of 50 to visualize their chances of survival over the next four years. The accuracy of this test is up to 81%.

Predicting lifespan. (Image: askforresearch, VNE)

The “fortune-telling” test is the result of research conducted by the San Francisco VA Medical Center. It consists of 12 simple questions focusing on demographic factors such as gender, age, and health conditions, and it takes only a few minutes to complete.

To create these 12 “life readings”, the lead researcher Sei J Lee and colleagues collected data from nearly 20,000 individuals over the age of 50 from 1998 to 2002. They categorized participants into three groups based on demographics, gender, age, and health issues (such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension), as well as their ability to perform daily activities like dressing, shopping, and managing finances. The team then tracked the number of participants who passed away by December 31, 2002, analyzed factors related to their deaths, and compiled these into key variables for calculating mortality rates. According to Lee, this test could serve as a valuable diagnostic tool for doctors in assessing their patients’ health.

The list of 12 questions is as follows:

1. Age: 60-64 (1 point), 65-69 (2 points), 70-74 (3 points), 75-79 (4 points), 80-84 (5 points), over 85 (7 points).
2. Gender: Male (2 points).
3. Body Mass Index (BMI): under 25 (1 point).
4. Diabetes: 2 points.
5. Cancer (including mild forms of skin cancer): 2 points.
6. Chronic lung disease that restricts activity or requires home oxygen: 2 points.
7. Congestive heart failure: 2 points.
8. Smoked cigarettes in the past week: 2 points.
9. Difficulty bathing due to health issues or memory problems: 2 points.
10. Difficulty managing money, paying bills, or tracking expenses due to memory or health issues: 2 points.
11. Difficulty walking due to health: 2 points.
12. Difficulty pushing or pulling heavy objects like a chair due to health: 1 point.

Scoring and mortality risk. The higher the score, the greater the risk of death.

1. 0-5 points: less than 4% risk of death.
2. 6-9 points: 15% risk of death.
3. 10-13 points: 42% risk of death.
4. 14 points and above: 64% risk of death.

My Linh (according to IOL)