A study published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment on January 6 has indicated that most countries on Earth may experience extreme heat waves with a frequency of once every two years by 2030.
The research combines data on past emissions and the commitments to reduce emissions made prior to the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) by the world’s five largest emitters (including China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Russia) to forecast regional warming conditions by 2030.
The researchers found that up to 92% of the 165 countries studied are at risk of experiencing extreme heat weather more frequently.
If, during the pre-industrial period, there was one year of extreme heat every 100 years, by 2030, this frequency will increase to once every two years.
Global warming causes many disasters. (Illustrative image).
To assess the impact of emissions from the aforementioned five major emitters, researchers analyzed climate models without the emissions from these sources since 1991, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first warned governments about human-induced climate change. They found that in this model, the proportion of countries experiencing extreme heat years decreased by up to 46%.
The lead author of the study, Ms. Lea Beusch from the Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich (Switzerland), stated that the research demonstrates how the actions of the world’s largest emitters negatively impact the climate at a regional scale.
According to Ms. Beusch, the world often discusses emissions or global temperatures theoretically, which are difficult for people to truly perceive.
However, she emphasized that regional climate change is more noticeable when “we are experiencing rising temperatures in our country and enduring extreme heat years more frequently.”
The researchers noted that the greatest impact of more frequent extreme heat occurs in Africa, which primarily has a tropical climate. However, the highest general temperature increases are in higher latitude areas in the North, where warming occurs at a faster rate than in tropical regions.
Nonetheless, the study authors believe that the frequency of extreme heat years could change if countries intensify their efforts to reduce emissions.
According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, with current policies, global emissions are expected to rise by 13.7% by 2030, a time when the world needs to halve emissions to achieve the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius as outlined in the Paris Agreement on climate change.
According to the head of the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute, climate scientist Robert Vautaud, each severe heat wave on a large scale results in thousands of deaths, and alarmingly, these heat waves are increasing.
A draft report from the United Nations indicates that if global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, one-quarter of the world’s population may face severe heat waves occurring at least once every five years.
As extreme heat waves increasingly become a reality worldwide, many are placing their hopes on the upcoming COP26 Conference. According to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the upcoming conference must mark a turning point in the fight against climate change.
To achieve this, all countries around the world must commit to net-zero emissions by 2050 and submit clear, reliable long-term strategies to achieve this goal.
