Temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius, reaching up to 50 degrees Celsius, are expected to become commonplace in the Mediterranean and Middle East in the future, according to simulations conducted by researchers.
The Mediterranean has just experienced a record hot spring. During the heatwave in April, this region recorded temperatures up to 20 degrees Celsius higher than normal in Algeria, Morocco, Portugal, and Spain.
Extreme temperatures during heatwaves will pose dangers for those working outdoors. (Photo: Reuters).
Scientists typically do not assert that climate change is solely responsible for a specific weather event, but this time it’s different. World Weather Attribution, an organization of climate modelers, claims that greenhouse gases have increased the likelihood of a heatwave in the Mediterranean by 100 times.
In a paper published in Climate and Atmospheric Science, Nikolaos Christidis, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office, analyzed future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean and Middle East in the context of a warming world. The researchers aimed to determine the frequency of days when temperatures could reach 50 degrees Celsius.
Christidis’s team utilized data from dozens of observation sites, ranging from Turkey and Spain to Egypt and Qatar. They first ran simulations of a pre-industrial world, where human activity had not altered the atmosphere. In this scenario, days with temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius were nearly impossible. Without greenhouse gases, such extreme temperatures would only occur in Saudi Arabia and along the coast of Tunisia, with a frequency of less than once per century.
Next, they simulated a world with emissions levels close to those today, where countries reduce but do not completely halt emissions. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are projected to reach around 600 parts per million by 2100, up from approximately 400 parts per million today. In this scenario, the Mediterranean would experience heatwaves exceeding 45 degrees Celsius every year, with a heatwave reaching 50 degrees Celsius occurring roughly every decade across the Mediterranean and Middle East.
With these temperatures, droughts and wildfires will occur more frequently, while 2022 was already the second-worst recorded wildfire season in Europe and the Mediterranean. Extremely high temperatures could melt asphalt, warp railway tracks, and make outdoor work hazardous.
Heatwaves have caused 8% of all weather-related deaths. The reason is that high temperatures combined with high humidity prevent the human body from cooling off through sweating, leading to fatalities. Countries in the Mediterranean and Middle East are accustomed to heat, but future scenarios are expected to be far more severe than current conditions.
