Scientists assert that the unusually early and prolonged heatwave in the Mediterranean recently would not have occurred without climate change.
The early heatwave at the start of summer is scorching several countries around the Mediterranean, including Spain, Portugal, Algeria, and Morocco. Researchers indicate that this phenomenon is almost certainly a result of climate change driven by human activities, according to the New York Times.
Unusual Heatwave
At the end of April, a hot, dry air mass from the Sahara Desert moved and settled directly above the western Mediterranean region, resulting in temperatures typically only experienced during the peak summer months of July and August.
In inland Spain, a record temperature of 44 degrees Celsius was recorded in Seville in April. In Morocco, thermometers reached 41.1 degrees Celsius in the capital, Marrakesh, setting a new April record for the North African country.
Data collected indicates that a scorching heat event lasting three consecutive days in April in the Mediterranean region is exceedingly rare, with only a 0.25% chance of occurring in any given year.
Spain recorded a record April temperature of 44 degrees Celsius in Seville. (Photo: New York Times).
According to Sjoukje Philip, a climate expert at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, the recent heatwave in the Mediterranean could not have occurred without climate change resulting from human economic activities.
Due to climate change, the heatwave in April had an average temperature that was 3 degrees higher than heatwaves during the pre-industrial period.
For many years, the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa have struggled with drought. Decreasing rainfall has severely impacted wheat harvests in Morocco.
High temperatures and lack of irrigation have also diminished olive production in Spain, the largest olive oil producer in Europe. Olive oil prices are currently at their highest in 26 years.
Fatima Driouech, an environmental expert at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, noted that water scarcity has significantly impacted the livelihoods of people in Southern Europe and North Africa.
“Future trends do not appear to be more promising,” Driouech warned.
The situation of extreme weather also poses widespread wildfire risks. The year 2022 was recorded as the second-worst year for wildfires in the European Union since statistics began in 2000.
Last year’s wildfires burned over 3,000 km2 of land in Spain. In neighboring Portugal, the area affected by wildfires reached over 1,000 km2.
Hazards from El Niño
“The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable regions in Europe to climate change. Heatwaves will not disappear; they will occur more frequently until we stop emitting greenhouse gases,” said Dr. Friederike Otto, an expert from Imperial College London, according to the Guardian.
Global warming will lead to more frequent and extreme heatwaves across all continents, scientists warn.
To accurately determine the impact of extreme weather events at different stages, scientists use a method called “attribution analysis.“
Using computers, researchers analyze the same event occurring under two different historical climates: one affected by decades of greenhouse gas emissions like today, and the other a hypothetical scenario without greenhouse gas emissions.
Unusual heatwaves are a consequence of climate change. (Photo: Reuters).
This method is used to study the impact of not only heatwaves but also droughts, storms, and cold snaps.
Research shows that greenhouse gas emissions leading to global warming have made heatwaves 100 times more likely compared to a scenario without emissions. Temperatures during heatwaves are also 3.5 degrees Celsius higher than in the hypothetical scenario without global warming.
Heatwaves are often considered the most dangerous extreme weather events. Data on fatalities from the April heatwave has not yet been released. However, in 2022, heatwaves caused 4,000 deaths in Spain, while approximately 1,000 fatalities were reported in Portugal.
“We urgently need to implement adaptive measures to reduce deaths from heat shock,” stated Roop Singh, a climate expert at the Red Cross and Red Crescent.
Global weather forecasting agencies are closely monitoring significant changes this year. For the first time in three years, El Niño is expected to return, likely by the end of the year.
It is still unclear to what extent El Niño will occur and how long it will last. However, overall, El Niño is expected to cause above-average temperatures globally.
In the context of an already warming Earth due to fossil fuel use, El Niño could lead to record high temperatures in many countries, experts caution.
