The rapid increase in the number of satellites and space debris will render low Earth orbit unusable unless companies and nations collaborate and share the necessary data to manage this region of space effectively.
The Need for Coordination
A United Nations (UN) workshop on space traffic coordination held at the end of October identified that urgent action is required and called for a comprehensive common database of orbital objects as well as an international framework to monitor and manage them.
Data from Slingshot Aerospace, a U.S.-based company, indicates that over 14,000 satellites, including about 3,500 inactive ones, are orbiting the Earth in low Earth orbit. In addition, there are approximately 120 million pieces of debris from launches, collisions, and wear, of which only a few thousand pieces are large enough to be tracked.
“There is no more time to hesitate in coordinating space traffic. We must do everything we can to ensure space safety and facilitate information sharing among operators (both public and private) to avoid collisions,” said Aarti Holla-Maini, Director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, emphasizing that low Earth orbit must be safely maintained to prevent costly disruptions to global technology, navigation, and scientific exploration.
However, there is no centralized system that all countries operating in space can utilize, and persuading them to use such a system faces numerous challenges. While some countries are willing to share data, others are concerned about security breaches, especially since satellites often serve dual purposes, including defense. Furthermore, businesses are keen to protect trade secrets.
Illustration of objects flying around Earth. (Source: Getty Image).
Meanwhile, the situation is worsening. A Chinese rocket stage exploded in August, scattering thousands of debris pieces into low Earth orbit. Earlier, in June, a defunct Russian satellite also exploded, sending thousands of debris flying, forcing astronauts on the International Space Station to take shelter for an hour.
Low Earth Orbit is the most crowded area with human-made objects, as it balances cost and distance, making it a primary target for the rapidly growing commercial space industry. Slingshot’s data shows that this area also witnessed a 17% increase in close approaches per satellite in the past year.
According to NorthStar Earth & Space, based in Montreal, Canada, it is forecasted that tens of thousands more satellites will enter orbit in the coming years. Consequently, the potential financial risks from collisions could reach up to $556 million over five years, based on a modeling scenario with an annual collision probability of 3.13% and annual damages of $111 million.
“We are at a critical juncture for establishing regulations and structures in space to monitor and manage the escalating congestion. With SpaceX’s Starlink launching thousands of satellites each year, and China and other countries preparing to follow suit, we will soon push the load capacity of major orbits to its limits,” stated Stewart Bain, CEO of NorthStar.
The Final Barrier
Low Earth Orbit is densely populated, with frequency bands such as those allocated for the Starlink satellite internet service at altitudes of 540 – 570 km. According to Jonathan’s Space Report, as of November 27, Starlink has 6,764 satellites in orbit. SpaceX data indicates that Starlink satellites performed nearly 50,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in the first half of 2024, double the number from the previous six months.
The European Space Agency also reported in 2021 that their maneuvers had increased to three or four times per spacecraft, compared to the previous average of once.
Data from LeoLabs shows that the 800 – 900 km frequency band contains fewer satellites but has 3,114 objects (active and inactive), including rocket bodies and debris (accounting for 20% of the total mass of objects in low Earth orbit), posing significant collision risks. Defunct satellites add to the clutter as they remain in orbit until they either fall or burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere many years later, or are moved to a “graveyard orbit” about 36,000 km away.
Global cooperation is essential to develop enforceable rules similar to those used by the International Civil Aviation Organization for air traffic. Industry experts have informed Reuters that such efforts would involve leveraging existing tools, such as databases, telescopes, radar, and other sensors to track objects while improving coverage, early detection, and data accuracy.
However, geopolitical tensions and reluctance to share data with countries deemed unfriendly, as well as commercial concerns over protecting proprietary information and competitive advantages, remain significant barriers.
This leaves operators of orbital equipment relying on informal or semi-official methods to avoid collisions, such as using data from the U.S. Space Force or groups like the Space Data Association. However, this can involve issues such as accountability and inconsistent data standards.
Holla-Maini, the Director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, stated that the top challenges to global cooperation in addressing space objects are speed (achieving consensus takes time) and trust. Some countries simply cannot communicate with others on this issue, but the UN can facilitate this process.
