One-fourth of the land in the United States, home to over 100 million people, will experience temperatures exceeding 52 degrees Celsius in the next three decades, including states with rapidly growing populations such as Texas.
According to a new report from the First Street Foundation, a climate risk research organization based in New York, the “extreme heat belt” will expand from 50 counties in 2023 to over 1,000 counties across the U.S. by 2053, as reported by the Financial Times.
“Extremely dangerous” is the term used by the National Weather Service when the heat index exceeds 52 degrees Celsius. This index combines temperature and relative humidity to determine an equivalent temperature based on human perception. High indexes can increase the risk of heat stroke, leading to cardiovascular issues and even death.
First Street predicts that the number of people in the U.S. exposed to such heat indexes will rise from 8 million in 2023 to 107 million by 2053.
The reports also indicate increasingly severe impacts on residential areas and the U.S. real estate market as the Earth warms due to greenhouse gas emissions. Global temperatures have risen by 1.1 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times.
Heatwaves have “scorched” much of the U.S. this summer, creating record temperatures in Texas and near-record figures from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast in July, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
A construction worker drinks water in the sweltering heat in Palm Springs, California, USA. (Photo: Reuters).
The report states that the increase in extreme temperatures above 52 degrees Celsius will be concentrated in the central U.S., stretching from northern Texas to states like Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa, which are far from the coasts.
The top cities most vulnerable to extreme heat days are St. Louis and Kansas City in Missouri, Memphis in Tennessee, Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Chicago in Illinois, according to the report.
The report also analyzes locations based on the number of days the heat index exceeds 38 degrees Celsius. Five counties—four in Texas and one in California—currently experience over 100 such days each year.
Nevertheless, according to Abby Corbett, a senior economist at CoStar, a commercial real estate research firm, households and businesses continue to flock to markets in states like Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and the Carolinas, despite the increasing climate risks and challenges.
