Through thorough observations, experts have determined that the asteroid 2022 AE1, measuring 70 meters in diameter, will pass by Earth at a distance of 10 million kilometers next year.
On January 6, astronomers discovered an asteroid approximately 70 meters wide and named it 2022 AE1. The following day, it was predicted to have a potential collision with Earth on July 4, 2023, by the Asteroid Orbit Determination (AstOD) automated system of the Near Earth Object Coordination Center (NEOCC) of the European Space Agency (ESA).
Asteroid 2022 AE1 captured by the Calar Alto Schmidt telescope in Spain. (Photo: ESA/NEOCC)
This system subsequently calculates the position of each object on the Palermo Scale, assessing the risk of collision. This scale considers the probability of collision and the kinetic energy of the object, estimating the level of damage it would cause based on its size and speed. A score of 0 on the Palermo Scale represents a baseline risk level. Therefore, anything with a positive value is immediately noted.
Fortunately, it is rare for scientists to detect objects with a positive value, and even then, more thorough observations often rule out the possibility of collision. The most notable example is Apophis, an asteroid that held the highest record in history on the Palermo Scale at 1.1, with a risk of collision in 2029. However, experts later determined that Apophis posed no danger to Earth for at least the next century.
Objects with a score below -2 on the Palermo Scale can be safely disregarded as the likelihood of collision with Earth is very low, or their size is too small to cause any damage if a collision were to occur. However, objects within the range of -2 to 0 need to be carefully monitored, and initially, asteroid 2022 AE1 had a score of -1.5.
Subsequent observations indicated an increased risk of collision. On January 11, 2022 AE1 had a Palermo value of -0.66, making it the most dangerous asteroid since 2009. Just as tensions peaked, the Moon obstructed observations, preventing scientists from monitoring it in the following week.
Determining the likelihood of 2022 AE1 colliding with Earth is critically important. The collision date in July 2023 means that humanity would not have enough time to take any action to deflect it, and the 70-meter diameter of the asteroid is large enough to cause significant damage in the impact area.
2022 AE1 is 3.5 times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured thousands when it exploded over Russia in 2013. It is also larger than the meteor believed to have caused the Tunguska event, which flattened 2,150 km2 of forest in 1908.
Fortunately, on January 20, astronomers continued to observe this asteroid and narrowed its trajectory to rule out the possibility of a collision next year. When 2022 AE1 passes close to Earth in early July 2023, it will be at least 10 million kilometers away, more than 20 times the distance to the Moon.
The sky observation system provides safety for humanity, allowing for early warnings to intervene if any asteroid is detected that could plunge toward Earth. NASA is also testing methods to mitigate such dangers. For example, last November, NASA successfully launched the DART spacecraft to test asteroid deflection techniques.
