Scientists predict that there will be more and stronger storms in the Atlantic Ocean this October, specifically forecasting three named storms along with two other storms, including one major storm, according to scientists on October 4th.
The activity of tropical cyclones is expected to form storms by October 30, say William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, two storm forecasters at Colorado State University. According to these two experts, the likelihood of a named storm making landfall and devastating the U.S. coastline is estimated at 49%, significantly higher than the typical 29% based on data from the past 100 years.
In their report forecasting storm activity in the Atlantic, researchers noted that there have been 183 tropical cyclones during this 2005 hurricane season, making it the seventh most active hurricane season since 1950.
Scientists Klotzbach and Gray, who both study in the Department of Atmospheric Science, also indicated that a major storm in October could reach categories 3 to 5, with wind speeds of at least 180 km/h. October is also the third most active month for storms, with about 20% of storms being named during the period from June 1 to November 30, researchers stated.
December is the month with the highest number of named storms at 50%, followed by August with 25%. This year, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita swept through the southern states of the U.S. during August and September.
One reason for the continued storm activity this month is that sea temperatures in the Atlantic are warmer by about 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius than normal. Warmer waters mean more storms. Another contributing factor to the increase in storms in October is a decrease in vertical wind shear.
However, these scientists believe that the warmer sea temperatures in the Atlantic are not caused by global warming. According to them, if it were due to global warming, storms would be seen everywhere, not just confined to certain areas.
T.VY (According to Reuters, Xinhua)
