Is the risk of a tsunami very high for Vietnam?

The recent prediction by an American scientist regarding the potential for a tsunami in Asia, which could be more devastating than the one on December 26, 2004, has reignited the urgent need for a tsunami warning system in Vietnam.

This issue has been a subject of controversy. Notably, recent studies indicate that the risk of a tsunami affecting Vietnam’s coastline is alarmingly high if…

According to Dr. Ngo Thi Lu from the Institute of Geophysics, the catastrophic damage and consequences resulting from the Andaman-Sumatra earthquake and tsunami on December 26, 2004, compel us to seriously consider whether a tsunami could occur along Vietnam’s coast, and what measures we can take to mitigate this risk (if it exists)…

In Vietnam, research on earthquake patterns in the South China Sea and the conditions that lead to tsunami formation, as well as forecasting capabilities to reduce potential damages, has begun to emerge over the past decade.

According to numerous studies by both domestic and international seismologists and oceanographers, tsunamis are rare and not particularly dangerous in Vietnam’s waters.

However, many studies also indicate that strong earthquakes have occurred off the western Philippines (the eastern edge of the South China Sea), with all the necessary conditions for generating tsunamis, such as sufficient energy (M > 8) and shallow focal depths.

On the other hand, GPS measurements of absolute movements in Vietnam and Thailand show that the Indochina Peninsula is moving eastward at a rate of 3±0.2 cm/year, while the Philippines is moving westward at no less than 8 cm/year. Therefore, the relative movement between the two plates is at least 10 cm/year.

This rate exceeds the rate at which the Indian Plate is being subducted beneath the Burma Plate. Thus, if an earthquake capable of generating a tsunami occurs at the boundary between the Philippine Plate and the Eurasian Plate, the risk of a tsunami for Vietnam’s coastline will be significantly heightened.

Consequently, it is crucial for Vietnam and neighboring regions to conduct thorough assessments and research on earthquakes that could cause tsunamis affecting the coastline, and to explore solutions for establishing systems and mechanisms for early warning of earthquakes and tsunamis to mitigate potential damages.

Scientists have recorded accounts of coastal disasters in Vietnam over the past 100 years, although their accuracy is often questionable. “We cannot afford to be complacent about the tsunami risk,” stated Assoc. Prof. Dr. Vu Thanh Ca, Director of the Center for Research and Application of New Technologies, Vietnam Meteorology and Hydrology Institute.