In the wake of the earthquake that shook many areas in western Japan last week, local and central government agencies have mobilized.
According to NHK, meteorologists gathered data and issued a temporary tsunami warning. At that time, a special committee warned of the risk of a “major earthquake” occurring in the following week. This was also the first time in history that this agency issued a nationwide warning. Shinkansen (bullet trains) were required to reduce speed as a precaution, disrupting travel plans, and the Prime Minister of Japan had to cancel overseas trips.
A house destroyed after the earthquake in Osaki, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, on August 8, 2024. (Photo: Kyodo/TTXVN)
By the end, the government lifted most of the warnings and reported no significant damage from the strong 7.1 magnitude earthquake.
However, much of the country remains on high alert, preparing for potential emergencies during the peak summer vacation season. This also reflects Japan’s intense focus on being ready for emergencies such as earthquakes.
Japan is no stranger to severe earthquakes. The Land of the Rising Sun lies on the Ring of Fire, an area known for intense seismic and volcanic activity on both sides of the Pacific.
“Japan is situated on the boundary of four tectonic plates, making it one of the most earthquake-prone areas in the world. Approximately 10% of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 or higher globally occur in or around Japan, a risk that Japan faces is significantly higher than places like Europe or the eastern United States,” explained Shoichi Yoshioka, a professor at Kobe University.
Historically, the worst earthquake that Japan has endured was the 9.1 magnitude Tohoku earthquake in 2011, which triggered a major tsunami and nuclear disaster. Approximately 20,000 people lost their lives in that “double” tragedy.
Following such historic earthquakes, seismologists have warned of a “super earthquake” in the Nankai Trough with a potential magnitude exceeding 9 in the coming decades. The frequency of warnings about this potential earthquake has become so common that both the public and authorities regard it as general knowledge. However, some scientists point out that it is ineffective to focus solely on the likelihood of a hypothetical earthquake in a specific area of Japan, especially when other parts of the country face similar threats but receive less attention.
The Nankai Trough is a 700 km long subduction zone formed by tectonic plates sliding past each other. Most earthquakes and tsunamis around the world are caused by tectonic movement, and the strongest earthquakes typically occur at subduction zones.
In this case, according to data from the Japan Earthquake Research Committee in 2013, the tectonic plate beneath the Philippine Sea is gradually sliding beneath the continental plate where Japan sits, moving a few centimeters each year.
The committee states that severe earthquakes in the Nankai Trough have been recorded with a frequency of 100-200 years apart. The last such earthquakes occurred in 1944 and 1946, both with a magnitude of 8.1, causing significant destruction in Japan, resulting in at least 2,500 fatalities and thousands of injuries, with tens of thousands of homes destroyed.
Calculating the time interval between each major earthquake, the Japanese government has warned that there is up to a 70% to 80% chance that Japan will be shaken by another earthquake in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, expected to have a magnitude between 8 and 9.
However, these forecasts have faced strong opposition from some areas. Professor Yoshioka noted that the 70%-80% figure might be too high, and the data is derived from a specific theory, making it likely to be erroneous.
Meanwhile, Robert Geller, a seismologist and emeritus professor at the University of Tokyo, expressed skepticism, calling the Nankai Trough earthquake a “fabrication.”
He also argued that earthquakes do not occur in cycles and can happen at any location and time. This means there is little basis for calculating when the next earthquake will occur based on when previous earthquakes took place.
A wall collapsed after the earthquake in Nichinan, Miyazaki Prefecture, Japan, on August 9, 2024. (Photo: Kyodo/TTXVN).
Community Preparedness
Despite opposition from some scientists, the Japanese community has never grown weary of preparing for potential major earthquakes. The populace remains in a state of heightened awareness.
Yota Sugai, a 23-year-old university student, stated that upon seeing the warning on television, he felt a genuine sense of urgency and fear, akin to a wake-up call. Following the earthquake on August 8, Sugai immediately stocked up on emergency supplies such as food and water, checked online maps for hazardous areas, and considered visiting relatives in coastal areas to help them plan evacuations.
“The earthquake on New Year’s Day reminded me that you never know when an earthquake will strike. It made me realize the tremendous power of nature,” Sugai referred to the 7.5 magnitude earthquake that occurred on the Noto Peninsula on January 1, resulting in hundreds of fatalities.
21-year-old student Mashiro Ogawa also took similar precautions, preparing an emergency kit at home and urging his parents to do the same. Ogawa is also avoiding the seaside at this time and rearranging furniture in his house, such as moving shelves away from the bed and lowering their height.
“These things used to seem very foreign, but now they feel very real,” Ogawa said.
A significant reason why people take this issue seriously is the heavy losses following each major earthquake. The disaster in 2011 left deep psychological scars on the populace, and these wounds have been exacerbated by subsequent major earthquakes occurring every few years.
Professor Yoshioka expressed: “Each time, we witness tragic losses of life, buildings crushed, and tsunamis wreaking havoc, leaving a lasting impression of fear. I think this significantly contributes to why Japan is so prepared.”
Megumi Sugimoto, an associate professor specializing in disaster prevention at Osaka University, stated that preparedness begins in schools, with even kindergartens conducting evacuation and earthquake drills for toddlers.
“Not only earthquakes and tsunamis, but other disasters also occur frequently, especially in summer. Public awareness and preventive measures, such as stockpiling emergency supplies, can help protect people from any type of disaster,” Sugimoto alluded to typhoons, heavy rains, and flooding.
However, both Sugimoto and Professor Geller pointed out that the Noto earthquake exposed vulnerabilities in Japan’s response system, with collapsed roads leaving the hardest-hit communities stranded, and many displaced residents remaining homeless months later.
The tragedy in Noto illustrates the risk of focusing too much attention on the Nankai Trough while other areas of the country are also under threat.
According to Geller, the emphasis on the Nankai Trough has led to better preparedness among people in that area, but it has detrimental effects on the rest of the country. People think Nankai is dangerous, but Kumamoto or the Noto Peninsula is just fine.
“That line of thinking tends to lull people into a false sense of security, except for the area that is continuously warned about,” Professor Geller concluded.
