IBM has released the Global Business Security Index Report for 2005, predicting potential cybersecurity threats that may arise in 2006. IBM forecasts a fundamental shift, or transformation, in cybercrime, moving from widespread global outbreaks to smaller, more discreet attacks targeting specific organizations for profit.
This report is presented by IBM’s Global Security Research Team. According to the report, the majority of global information technology threats in 2005 were at a moderate level. While the Zotob virus attracted worldwide attention, affecting well-known media agencies, the past year saw fewer global outbreaks of malware compared to previous years.
However, this does not tell the whole story. Criminal spam, malware, and cyberattacks became more apparent over the past year. In the United States and around the world, many dangerous criminals were arrested. These criminals belong to organized groups motivated by profit. While software and network systems worldwide have become increasingly secure due to a series of improvements, it is predicted that criminals will primarily focus on the most vulnerable access points, such as the personnel of the targeted company or organization, to carry out their attacks.
According to Cal Slemp, Vice President of IBM’s Security and Privacy Services: “The decrease in the number of mass attacks in 2005 contradicts the expectations of the majority of society and poses a significant threat to personal information. IBM believes that the environment has changed, with security protections on network systems being enhanced and penalties becoming increasingly severe. We are seeing more organized entities with clear and strict commitments entering this field. This means that attacks will shift to more specific targets, and the risk of disruption will be higher. Organizations worldwide, whether in the public or private sector, must quickly collaborate to address these growing challenges.”
The IBM Global Business Security Index Report also outlines potential threats for 2006, including:
– Insider Attacks – As software becomes more secure, computer users will become specific targets for attacks within companies and organizations. Criminals will focus their efforts on persuading users to carry out attacks rather than spending time uncovering vulnerabilities in overly complex software. The use of global resources, workforce reductions, mergers, and acquisitions may pose challenges for companies and organizations as they seek to protect users from these risks.
– Emerging Markets – Cybercriminals will exploit weaknesses in international links for combating cybercrime to carry out cross-border attacks, thus increasing threats originating from and targeting developing countries and emerging markets. Consequently, tracing the origins of attacks will become significantly more challenging, particularly as trends show that attacks often originate from regions such as Eastern Europe and Asia, where penalties are not stringent and law enforcement is limited.
– Blogging – The increased use of tools like blogging also heightens the risk of leaking confidential business documents.
– Instant Messaging – Botnets, collections of software robots that allow control of systems without the owner’s knowledge, will continue to be one of the greatest threats to the Internet. New botnets will feature smaller, more easily disguised cells that may shift to instant messaging networks and peer-to-peer systems to command and control infected systems.
– Mobile Devices – Malware affecting mobile phones, PDAs, and other wireless devices has increased significantly over the past year, but has not yet resulted in widespread attacks because they cannot propagate on their own. Therefore, this trend will continue to be monitored in 2006.
The phenomenon of email viruses decreased in 2005. Only 1 in 36.15 emails, or 2.8% of sent emails, contained a virus or Trojan. Compared to 2004, this figure has significantly decreased. In 2004, the rate was 6.1%, meaning 1 in 16.39 emails.
Phishing – Phishing remains a major threat in 2005. On average, there was one phishing email for every 304 emails sent, while in 2004, there was one phishing email for every 943 emails.
Malware Ingenuity – 2005 witnessed an increase in complex threats and the integration of automated features into existing malware. For example, Mytob was based on the Mydoom worm and included automation and several enhancements to create more dangerous malware. Consequently, variants of Mytob emerged shortly thereafter.
The IBM Global Business Security Index Report is a monthly report assessing and analyzing potential cybersecurity threats based on data and information collected by IBM from 3,000 security experts worldwide and thousands of control devices as well as strategic security business partners.
Le Quang
