As our planet warms, polar ice caps are melting rapidly, and global climate change is a growing concern, a colossal new resource is emerging in the Arctic.
There are three major issues that make the Arctic an irresistible target: oil, seafood resources, and transportation routes. Conflicts in the Arctic could be catastrophic…
In fact, there has yet to be any international agreement defining what constitutes the Arctic. The long-standing view of the former Soviet Union was that Arctic issues should be resolved within the framework of Arctic countries, namely Canada, Russia, the United States, Denmark – Greenland, and Norway. After the International Arctic Science Committee was established in the early 1990s, the Soviet Union conceded and added Finland, Iceland, and Sweden. Now, India and China are also involved.
Oil and Gas
The massive Snohvit (Snow White) complex in Norway is extracting natural gas from the Barents Sea through the state-owned oil company Statoil. By 2007, Snohvit will begin exporting liquefied natural gas to Cove Point, Maryland, USA. This energy source will be “more competitive” (especially in terms of shipping security) compared to oil imported from the Middle East and Africa to the United States.
However, no matter how large Snohvit is, it pales in comparison to the operations on the eastern side, within Russian territory. In September 2005, the powerful Russian company Gazprom invited five partners—Statoil, Norsk Hydro (also from Norway), Total (France), Chevron, and ConocoPhillips (both from the USA)—to join in the development of the Shtokman gas field located on the seabed of the Barents Sea, which is twice the size of Canada’s gas field.
Besides natural gas, oil resources are also “abundant.” All international oil companies are trying to obtain licenses for extraction in the Russian or Norwegian waters of the Barents Sea. Many major companies have contacted the Norwegian Arctic Institute to explore the feasibility of drilling in the ice-covered waters heading north beyond Spitzbergen.
If the Barents Sea opens up, the global oil balance will change dramatically. Russia will become an effective strategic counterpoint to OPEC. In September 2005, India’s oil minister visited Oslo to discuss extraction. China has also established a research station on Norway’s Spitzbergen Island and has dispatched the icebreaker Long Yueh from Antarctica twice to study climate change.
If a new shipping route is opened in the north, operating even for just 4-5 months a year, Norway could become one of the leading suppliers of oil and gas to China. In January 2005, the Information & Research Office of the U.S. State Department held a two-day session to hear reports from experts on the consequences of global warming and the possibility of the Arctic “opening up”! The conclusion: “The United States and other countries need to reassess their foreign policies if this warming trend continues. This pertains to accessing and exploiting new resources, especially in oil and fishing.”
Transformative Fishing Industry
Moreover, there are projections regarding the enormous fish and crab stocks resulting from melting ice and global warming. For instance, pink salmon are flooding into newly formed rivers due to changes in the Chukchi and Bering Seas towards the south.
In a 2002 report requested by the U.S. Navy, the Arctic Research Committee concluded that there is a migration of seafood species across the Bering Strait: “Global warming has intensified fishing in the North Sea, especially in the Barents, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas… This region previously had minimal commercial activity. Furthermore, fishing seasons in the Bering Sea will expand as ice forms later and melts earlier.”
However, there are challenges as fish stocks move from one territory to another. For example, snow crabs appear to be heading toward Russia, moving north and west away from Alaska as the ice melts. This lucrative industry may slip from American hands. Glenn Reed, president of the Pacific Seafood Harvesters Association, stated: “If the crabs head towards Russia, we will have nothing left to do. We can only wait for them to come back!”
Until recently, only a few areas in the Arctic were scientifically exploited using icebreakers and nuclear submarines. Today, many countries have sent research delegations to claim territorial expansion rights. Experts predict that conflicts in the Arctic will be the most catastrophic.
This is the only place on the planet where the borders of five countries—Russia, Denmark, Norway, Canada, and the United States—meet closely, akin to slicing the top of an orange. The whole world will focus on this land, and fierce conflicts are almost unavoidable. The Arctic Protection Commission remains on the sidelines.
In 2001, they rejected Russia’s claim to more than half of the Arctic Ocean. However, Moscow has not given up. The Russian research vessel Akademik Fyodorov recently sailed directly to the North Pole to create a map that maximizes their benefits. In June 2005, Denmark and Canada announced the establishment of a joint expedition to areas that are not yet their territory.
Denmark’s priority: to prove that the 1,600 km Lomonosov Ridge under the sea connecting to Greenland is their territory! They assert that the North Pole is the heritage of their ancestors! Canada also wants to claim as much as possible. Last summer, Canadian Defense Minister Bill Graham visited Hans Island, a 3 km rock that both Canada and Denmark claim sovereignty over! The United States also claims a portion of the Arctic seabed larger than the state of California.
New Strategic Maritime Routes
If the Arctic continues to melt at the current rate, extremely strategic shipping routes will open up in the next decade. This will lead to fierce conflicts.
These new shipping routes will significantly reduce maritime shipping costs from Europe to East Asia. The distance from London to Tokyo via the Northwest Passage around the top of North America is 13,680 km. In contrast, the current route via the Panama Canal is 24,140 km.
If navigating the Northern Sea Route, through Northern Europe and Russia, the distance is only 12,800 km. On the other hand, the classical route via the Suez Canal, wrapping around the Indian Ocean through the Malacca Strait, spans 21,000 km.
The result of this massive traffic flow will lead to conflicts as countries owning the routes seek to enforce laws to protect fishing industries, prevent piracy and smuggling, and safeguard their Arctic territories from illegal oil drilling… The situation is complicated further as Russia and Canada view the route as a national asset, while other countries insist it is… international waters!
How Will the Arctic Be Divided?
The five countries that will directly control the shipping routes and natural resources of the Arctic are Russia, Norway, Denmark, Canada, and the United States. Currently, each Arctic coastal state controls its territory up to 426 km from its coastline. No country owns the pole itself. The involved countries can make their claims, which must be approved by the United Nations. However, every country wants to extend its claims, at least at the negotiating table. Two opposing viewpoints currently exist.
The median line method: proposed by the United Nations, Canada, and Denmark. The Arctic Ocean will be divided along lines extending from each country’s border to the pole. Under this method, Denmark would own the North Pole.
The fan method: proposed by Russia and Norway. The North Pole is a common asset, from which fan-like lines extend to each country’s borders, similar to slicing an orange.
However, history shows that negotiations often fail until after conflicts arise.
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Current situation: Arctic coastal nations have rights to control up to 426 km from their existing coastlines. | Dividing the Arctic according to the proposal of Canada, Denmark, and the UN: proportional to the length of each country’s coastline, extending to the North Pole. | Dividing according to the proposal of Russia and Norway: along longitudinal lines extending from the North Pole down to the borders of surrounding countries, like slicing an orange from the top. |
TRUNG LÊ
