Experts predict that global warming may increase the number of turbulence incidents, affecting air traffic in the future.
Air turbulence (the chaotic movement of air) is a normal and sometimes unavoidable part of flying.
The phenomenon of aircraft encountering air turbulence is increasing – (Photo: PILOT INSTITUTE).
Turbulence is caused by a change in wind speed and direction, occurring over a short distance in the atmosphere. When aircraft hit these strong gusts, they can be pushed or pulled in different directions.
Commercial aircraft typically fly above these weather patterns to avoid frequent turbulence. However, turbulence can also occur at various altitudes.
In a study published in the journal Nature, scientists at the University of Reading in the UK found that air turbulence has increased by 15% since the first observation in 1979.
Causing damage of $150-500 million per year
Dr. Mark Prosser, the head of the research team, stated: “Air turbulence makes flights bumpier and can pose risks to passengers and crew members.”
According to the Straits Times, air turbulence poses various threats to aviation safety as safety equipment still has many limitations in detecting this phenomenon.
Moreover, air turbulence tends to be localized, making forecasting difficult, unlike turbulence caused by storms, which is easier to detect, monitor, and predict in advance.
Co-author of the study, Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading, told Newsweek: “We have accumulated a substantial amount of scientific evidence showing that turbulence is increasing due to climate change. Severe turbulence has increased by more than 15% since 1979.”
Severe turbulence has increased by more than 15% since 1979.
Scientists recommend that investment in improving turbulence forecasting capabilities and air turbulence detection systems should be ramped up to mitigate risks for flights in the coming decades.
There have been several incidents in recent months related to severe air turbulence.
The increase in turbulence is likely related to the impact of climate change on wind speeds in the upper atmosphere. The number of turbulence incidents has notably increased in recent decades in the mid-latitude regions, including the North Atlantic and flight paths over the United States.
The research findings indicate that global warming may destabilize the jet stream. The jet stream is a fast-moving air current that circles the Earth in the Northern Hemisphere, according to Mark Prosser, a co-author of the study at the University of Reading, UK.
The jet stream flows like a river of air from west to east, powered by the temperature difference between the cooler northern regions and the warmer southern air masses. Climate change could imbalance the jet stream, significantly impacting future air traffic. “Aircraft often fly within the jet stream, but the areas where they fly are also where turbulence occurs,” Prosser noted.
Experts predict that the instability of the jet stream will continue to increase as the world warms. Prosser’s colleagues at the University of Reading are using climate models to predict how turbulence incidents in the latter half of the century might change if global warming continues.
In early March 2023, seven people had to be hospitalized after severe turbulence occurred on a Lufthansa flight from Austin, Texas, to Frankfurt, Germany, as reported by NBC. The flight, carrying 184 passengers, was forced to divert and ultimately landed safely.
In December 2022, a Hawaiian Airlines flight from Phoenix, Arizona, to Honolulu, Hawaii, encountered severe turbulence that injured 25 people. According to Hawaiian Airlines, the flight was carrying 278 passengers. The turbulence was so severe that it damaged the interior of the aircraft.
In 2021, an American Airlines flight en route to Florida had to divert to Louisiana after turbulence injured 10 people on board.
In 2019, at least 35 people were injured after an Air Canada flight from Toronto, Canada, to Sydney, Australia, unexpectedly encountered turbulence. The flight was forced to land in Honolulu.
The world is facing rapidly worsening climate change.
Since 1880, the Earth’s temperature has increased by an average of 0.08°C per decade, according to Climate.gov, the website of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States.
Fatalities due to turbulence are rare, but major incidents are not uncommon, according to Larry Cornman, a physicist and project scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Research Center. Cornman specializes in studying small-scale atmospheric motions that can threaten aircraft. Since 2009, according to the National Transportation Safety Board, the United States has not reported any fatalities related to turbulence on large commercial flights. Among millions of flights, turbulence has caused 185 serious injuries from 2009 to 2023.
Researchers at the University of Reading estimate that human-caused climate change could increase severe turbulence incidents threefold by the 2050s to 2080s.
