Studies Show That Deaths from Zoonotic Diseases May Increase 12-Fold by 2050.
According to Ginkgo Bioworks, a biotechnology company, zoonotic infectious diseases are expected to occur more frequently in the future due to climate change and deforestation. Experts have observed that the number of outbreaks has increased by nearly 5% each year from 1963 to 2019, with mortality rates rising by 9%. However, researchers caution that actual figures could be higher, as they do not account for deaths caused by COVID-19.
“If the rate of outbreaks continues to increase as it has, we predict that pathogens will cause death tolls in 2050 that are more than 12 times higher than in 2020,” a representative of the research team stated.
The study conducted by this organization, published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ Global Health), analyzed historical trends of four specific types of diseases from the filovirus group, including Ebola, Marburg, SARS, Nipah virus, and Machupo virus.
Scientists examined over 3,000 outbreaks from 1963 to 2019 and identified 75 zoonotic diseases across 24 countries. These include outbreaks reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), events since 1963 that resulted in 50 or more fatalities, and historically significant pandemics, such as the flu pandemics of 1918 and 1957.
A researcher searching for signs of malaria, Zika, and other pathogens in a bat in Uganda. (Photo: National Geographic)
In total, these diseases caused 17,000 deaths, with 15,000 attributed to filoviruses, primarily occurring in Africa. Scientists emphasize the need for more evidence regarding recent zoonotic outbreaks to demonstrate that they are not random incidents but follow a trend that will persist for decades.
The research team recommends that countries take urgent action to address the increasing risks to global health.
Viruses from animals are emerging more frequently due to livestock farming and human encroachment into natural environments, leading to diseases that can range from mild to severe and even fatal. Following COVID-19, new pathogens such as the Marburg virus in Africa and the Langya virus in China have emerged. Some diseases that were once thought to be confined to specific regions are now spreading to multiple countries, such as monkeypox. A commonality among these diseases is that they all originate from animals.
