The peak of the El Niño phenomenon is expected to occur from November to February 2024, impacting the weather across four continents with varying consequences for each country.
The world will witness the intensifying peak of El Niño. In the coming weeks, it will have noticeable effects on the weather across the Americas, Asia, Australia, and Africa.
According to NOAA, there is a likelihood of a super El Niño in the near future, causing weather and environmental impacts such as sea surface temperatures rising by up to +2°C, with a probability of 3 out of 10.
El Niño will affect the weather of 4 out of 5 continents this winter. (Illustrative image: Futura Science).
Scientists predict that a sea surface temperature increase of +1.8°C will have much more significant consequences than an increase of +1.5°C. Despite concerns and alarming forecasts in recent months, the El Niño of 2023 is not expected to reach the strongest levels recorded in the past, such as in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.
Information from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also indicates that sea temperatures will rise to +1.9°C in November and +2.2°C in January 2024.
Severe Weather Impacts Across Four Continents
In North America, warmer than normal weather is expected in western Canada; there will be wetter conditions in the southwestern United States, which may reduce drought in the desert but poses a high risk of flooding.
El Niño will also lead to cooler, wetter conditions across the southern United States, though drought is still a possibility.
In South America, drier weather is anticipated in northern Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela; hotter conditions along the western coast of Brazil, and wetter weather in Argentina and Uruguay. The Amazon rainforest is expected to become drier, increasing the risk of wildfires.
In Asia, overall warmer weather is predicted, particularly for countries that have experienced unusual heatwaves in recent years, such as India, Pakistan, China, and Japan; hotter and drier conditions are expected in Thailand and Indonesia.
This phenomenon will also create wetter conditions in the eastern regions, including China and Taiwan.
In Australia, warmer weather is forecasted for the southern regions, which poses a fire risk. Meanwhile, in Africa, hotter and drier conditions are expected in the southeastern continent, including South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Zambia, and Madagascar; warmer and more humid conditions are anticipated in Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the impacts of El Niño have yet to be demonstrated.
Climate Change Combined with El Niño Increases Extreme Weather Risks
This El Niño event is expected to be less extreme than those of 2015-2016 or 1997-1998, but that does not mean its consequences will be insignificant.
Global sea surface temperatures are contributing to the anomalous El Niño in the Pacific.
The combination of El Niño and global warming may even lead to more severe weather conditions than previous El Niño events, as past occurrences happened in contexts less influenced by climate change.
All agencies predict a strong El Niño with global consequences. The initial impacts of El Niño will be clearly felt this winter in several countries.
On the other hand, the warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean will relate to changes in wind patterns, causing significant repercussions for the global climate. Although this phenomenon has been occurring since June, it has been too weak to trigger substantial impacts.
