Recent research warns that the Amazon rainforest is facing a multitude of pressures that could lead to the collapse of this vast ecosystem by 2050.
The Amazon rainforest, home to over 10% of the world’s biodiversity, plays a crucial role in stabilizing the global climate by absorbing and storing greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to about two decades of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
However, stresses from deforestation, drought, wildfires, and rising temperatures have eroded the resilience of the Amazon rainforest. Scientists warn that this could trigger what is known as a “tipping point”, pushing this vital ecosystem into a process of significant and irreversible change in the coming decades.
The Amazon rainforest in Labrea, Amazonas state, northern Brazil, devastated by fire and logging, photographed on September 2, 2022 – (Photo: Douglas Magno/AFP/Getty Images).
In the latest study published in the journal Nature on February 14, an international team of scientists estimates that approximately 10-47% of the Amazon rainforest will face pressures by 2050, potentially leading to widespread ecosystem changes.
This situation could cause the important Amazon ecosystem not only to stop absorbing CO2 but even to release stored carbon dioxide, further accelerating global warming and exacerbating the impacts of climate change.
The researchers utilized data from computer models, alongside real-world observations and evidence of changes from thousands of years ago, to describe the complexity of the forest system and identify the main causes.
They then analyzed these stress factors—including global warming, annual rainfall, the length of the dry season, and deforestation—to determine how they might individually or collectively contribute to the risk of large-scale ecosystem disruption.
They warned that by 2050, the Amazon could face unprecedented water scarcity.
While some areas may transform into “white sand savannas,” which are increasingly expanding in the Amazon after wildfires, many other regions within the forest could be covered with flammable vegetation interspersed with invasive grasses. Although wetter areas may remain, the forest will have fewer tree species, with fast-growing plants like bamboo becoming more prevalent.
“Vast rivers have completely dried up, isolating local and indigenous communities for months, leading to a scarcity of food and drinking water. I never imagined that people could experience water shortages in the Amazon rainforest,” said Bernardo Flores from the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Florianopolis, Brazil, the lead author of the study.
Co-author Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert from the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research in the UK also noted evidence suggesting that rising temperatures, severe droughts, and wildfires could affect forest function and alter which tree species can thrive in the region.
A Global Call to Action
Large swathes of the Amazon region have recently endured a devastating drought, shrinking vital waterways, wilting crops, and causing wildfires.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group stated that this historic drought is primarily driven by climate change rather than the naturally occurring El Niño weather phenomenon.
They are also concerned that the Amazon is shifting from a carbon sink to a CO2 emission source. This will be a key topic when Brazil hosts a significant international climate negotiation.
Flores warned that even if countries with parts of the Amazon commit to reversing deforestation and achieve this goal in the coming decades, such efforts could be merely “a drop in the bucket” if the global community does not commit to significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
