The Kong-rey typhoon, which is forecasted to become a super typhoon, is displaying unpredictable behavior, changing direction suddenly and is expected to make landfall soon.
The latest updates from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 5 AM on October 28 indicate that Typhoon Kong-rey, the latest storm near the South China Sea, is maintaining its intensity but slowing down its movement over the Philippine Sea.
Typhoon Kong-rey is the latest storm following Typhoon Trà Mi – Storm No. 6 in the South China Sea. (Photo: PAGASA).
The center of Typhoon Kong-rey (local name: Leon) is located approximately 840 km east of Central Luzon, Philippines. This latest storm follows Typhoon Trà Mi, Storm No. 6 in the South China Sea, moving westward at a speed of 10 km/h, with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gusts up to 105 km/h.
According to the latest forecast from PAGASA, Typhoon Kong-rey will continue moving west over the next 12 hours before turning northwest early on October 29. With the current trajectory of Typhoon Kong-rey, PAGASA forecasters do not rule out the possibility that the storm may continue moving west. After that, Typhoon Kong-rey could shift to a northwest direction between October 30 and 31.
Forecasts suggest that Typhoon Kong-rey will make landfall in Taiwan (China) early on November 1 before turning northeast into the East China Sea. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) also anticipates that the latest storm following Typhoon Trà Mi will make landfall in Taiwan (China) on November 1.
According to the trajectory forecast released by PAGASA, Typhoon Kong-rey may pass near the Batanes area of the Philippines on October 30 or 31.
Forecast path of Typhoon Kong-rey. (Photo: PAGASA)
Typhoon Kong-rey is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours and may reach severe tropical storm levels by the afternoon of October 28. Kong-rey also has the potential for rapid intensification, which means it could increase in intensity by at least 30 nautical miles (approximately 56 km/h) within 24 hours.
Previously, Typhoon Kong-rey entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 7:30 PM on October 26. In the report at 4 PM on October 27 from PAGASA, Typhoon Kong-rey was located 1,000 km east of Central Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gusts up to 90 km/h while moving west at 20 km/h. At that time, Typhoon Kong-rey was forecasted to make landfall in the southwest of the Ryukyu Islands, Japan.
The latest forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U.S. Navy notes that the storm near the Philippines could reach its maximum intensity on October 31, at a Category 3 level on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds up to 205 km/h and gusts around 240 km/h.
It is forecasted that on October 31, Typhoon Kong-rey will turn north toward Taiwan (China) before looping back eastward. The change in Kong-rey’s direction may be due to a developing subtropical high and an upper-level trough approaching southeastern China.
According to storm experts, it is quite rare for Kong-rey to make landfall in Taiwan (China) at Category 3 intensity. Data since 1945 indicates that only three storms made landfall in Taiwan (China) as Category 3 storms in October: Typhoon Nock-ten (2004), Longwang (2005), and Krosa (2007).
Latest reports from Xinhua indicate that in response to Typhoon Kong-rey approaching China, Fujian Province in eastern China has activated a Level 4 emergency response. The China National Meteorological Center forecasts that Typhoon Kong-rey will strengthen into a strong or super typhoon.
