A new study from Dartmouth College suggests that the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica may not collapse as previously feared.
A recent study led by Dartmouth College indicates that the worst predictions regarding sea level rise due to melting ice may not come to pass. However, this does not mean that the melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica is no longer a concern, according to Interesting Engineering.
This study contradicts scenarios previously outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which suggested that Antarctica could contribute to a doubling or even tripling of global average sea levels by 2030.
Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. (Photo: NASA).
The research team employed a high-resolution MICI model to gather more accurate data. They argued that if the IPCC reports were correct, Florida would have long been submerged.
In their study, the experts tested the Thwaites Glacier, also known as the “Doomsday Glacier.” They aimed to analyze the potential of this glacier to raise global sea levels by more than 60 cm.
According to the researchers, the Thwaites Glacier is unlikely to collapse as previously feared. They believe the conclusions in the IPCC report are inaccurate.
Professor Mathieu Morlighem from Dartmouth College stated: “These predictions truly impact people’s lives. Policymakers rely on these models and often consider the highest risks. We are not saying that Antarctica is safe and that sea levels will not continue to rise – all our predictions indicate that ice is melting rapidly. But extreme predictions are critical for coastal planning, and we want them to be physically accurate.”
Morlighem explained that the MICI concept relates to the rapid collapse of ice shelves, exposing ice walls at the outer edges of icebergs without support. If these walls are tall, they may break under their own weight, leading to the exposure of a taller wall and causing a faster retreat of the iceberg.
While researchers are monitoring the Thwaites Glacier, its future remains uncertain. This study is particularly important as it offers a different perspective on ice melting and sea level rise.
In February 2023, the journal Nature published research from New Zealand and international scientists suggesting that melting glacial lakes pose a significant natural hazard to downstream communities, with floods potentially occurring suddenly when natural dams break.
The research indicated that those living in the high mountain regions of Asia and the Andes in South America face the highest risks, while areas with high population density and limited resources to cope are in the most danger.
The IPCC’s synthesis report published in March 2023 also addressed changes that have been forecasted and observed in the Earth’s climate system; past and future impacts such as heatwaves, floods, and rising sea levels. The report emphasized measures to prevent carbon emissions, quickly phase out fossil fuel use, and promote the adoption of technological solutions.
