Experts are puzzled as the Atlantic Ocean experiences an unusually calm period, the most tranquil in 56 years, contrary to predictions of a severe hurricane season.
Typically, early September marks the peak activity period for hurricanes in the Atlantic. Scientists had predicted that this year’s hurricane season could be very severe, with up to 20 major storms expected in succession, according to CNN.
However, the Atlantic is strangely quiet. Since mid-August, following the storm Ernesto, there have been no additional storms in the Atlantic, an occurrence that has not happened in 56 years.
The current situation suggests that the likelihood of storm formation in the near future is low.
Expert Michael Lowry stated that if no storms appear by September 10, it will mark the longest calm period during the peak of hurricane season in nearly 100 years in the Atlantic.
Hurricane Ernesto in the Atlantic on August 15. (Photo: CNN Weather).
According to experts, this strange hurricane season is influenced by extreme atmospheric conditions, which are a consequence of climate change.
Matthew Rosencrans from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) believes that what we are witnessing may provide a “lens” to better understand the erratic behavior of future storms. Scientists have long warned that global warming will result in fewer storms, but those that do form will be more intense.
Ideal conditions for hurricane development—including warm sea surface temperatures, minimal disruption from upper-level winds, and abundant moist air—are present, yet storms are not forming.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and scientist at Colorado State University, noted that overlooked atmospheric factors are hindering this process and are related to global warming.
For instance, the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are nearing record warmth even before the hurricane season began. This was a key factor that fueled Hurricane Beryl, a powerful Category 5 storm, right at the start of the season.
However, hurricanes cannot intensify further if they cannot initially enter warm waters.
Most hurricanes originate offshore from Central Africa. Since mid-summer, the weather conditions conducive to storm formation have been pushed further north than usual, even reaching one of the driest areas on Earth, the Sahara Desert. The dry air, abundant dust, and cooler ocean temperatures here have suppressed storm development.
Additionally, the monsoon in Africa contains significant moisture, which can hinder the formation of “big” storms. A study released in June indicated that storms also follow the Goldilocks principle: humidity must be at a moderate level—not too dry or too humid—for storms to form and develop.
However, experts caution that this hurricane season is not over yet. More than 40% of activity in an average Atlantic hurricane season occurs after September 10. Klotzbach believes storms will return strongly in the latter half of September when the factors hindering storm development may begin to ease.
