Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States have issued their highest forecast ever for the Atlantic hurricane season: between 17 and 25 named storms. According to the forecast, 13 of these storms are expected to be hurricanes with winds of 119 km/h (74 mph) or higher, and 4 to 7 storms are anticipated to be major hurricanes with winds of 179 km/h (111 mph) or higher.
Experts predict that more than two dozen storms could occur this year due to climate change and La Niña.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could be particularly strong due to climate change. (Photo: Getty Images).
“This hurricane season looks like it will be very special. 2024 is on track to become the seventh consecutive above-normal hurricane season,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad at a press conference on May 23.
According to NOAA, an average hurricane season has 14 named storms, of which 7 are hurricanes and 3 are major hurricanes. The most active season on record was in 2020, with as many as 30 named storms.
Scientists have previously found that climate change has made extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons more likely compared to the 1980s. This is because warming oceans do not lead to more frequent storms but instead cause them to develop faster and stronger.
Hurricanes develop from a thin layer of warm seawater that evaporates and rises to form storm clouds. The warmer the ocean, the more energy the system receives, pushing the hurricane formation process to the limit and enabling severe storms to form rapidly.
Since March 2023, the average sea surface temperatures worldwide have reached record highs, indicating that a significant hurricane season is imminent. Scientists also predict that El Niño, which has just ended, will transition into La Niña.
El Niño is a climate cycle in which the waters in the eastern tropical Pacific are warmer than normal, affecting global weather patterns.
During El Niño, winds in the Atlantic are typically stronger and more stable than normal, acting to suppress the formation of storms. However, if the climate cycle unfolds as predicted and El Niño is replaced by La Niña, this summer may see a flurry of storms. This is because La Niña weakens trade winds, thus reducing vertical wind shear, which is a key factor in the formation of new storms.
So far this decade, there have been five unprecedented storms with winds of 309 km/h (192 mph) or higher, prompting scientists to propose a “Category 6” intensity level to describe them.
