According to a study published in the journal Nature – Climate change could push over a quarter of terrestrial species to the brink of extinction. The study indicates that from now until 2050, approximately 15 to 37% of species in the most diverse regions will be at risk of extinction. Scientists believe that high extinction rates may also occur elsewhere due to climate change.
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(Image: conservation) |
Researchers studied six regions, covering about 20% of the Earth’s land area, and calculated the future distribution of 1,103 species of plants and animals. Three levels of change were considered – minor change, moderate change, and major change – based on the likelihood that some species could disperse and successfully move to another area, thus mitigating impacts and reducing extinction risk. The study utilized mathematical models with computer assistance to simulate how species might respond to changes in temperature and weather. This represents the largest collaboration among scientists on this issue.
Lee Hannah from the Center for Applied Biodiversity Science (CABS) at Conservation International (CI) remarked: “This study clarifies that climate change is the most significant factor threatening extinction in this century. The cumulative impact of shrinking habitats (considered a major threat to species) and climate change reduces the ability of species to move and survive.”
Predictions about certain species potentially going extinct due to climate changes from now until 2050 do not imply that these species will be wiped out by then.
The research predicts that at least about 18% (the average figure using different models) will face extinction under climate change scenarios by 2050, approximately 24% with larger changes, and 34% with significant changes. Thus, 15-20% of terrestrial species need to be protected from extinction with very minor changes in climate.
Chris Thomas from the University of Leeds stated: “By extrapolating predictions with other groups of terrestrial flora and fauna, our analyses indicate that millions of species are at risk of extinction as a result of climate change.”
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Chris Thomas |
Even slight fluctuations in climate can affect the viability of a species in its original habitat. A slight temperature increase can influence a species’ movement toward cooler areas. If their habitats are completely destroyed, these species will have nowhere to shelter. According to Hannah, this study must be divided into two parts: “First, we must rapidly reduce greenhouse gases and shift to cleaner, newer technologies that can help protect countless species. Second, we need to find solutions to understand how climate changes will affect entire ecosystems, thereby preparing emergency plans for their conservation.”
In this study, CABS collaborated with the National Botanical Institute of South Africa to assess over 300 plant species in the Cape region. In this area, 30 to 40% of species in the Proteaceae family are at risk of complete extinction as a result of climate change by 2050. The Proteaceae family includes South Africa’s national flower, the King protea, along with the daystar and the pincushions.
The Cape region is considered one of the 25 “biodiversity hotspots” with a large number of endemic and threatened species.
Global temperatures have risen by about one degree Fahrenheit over the past century, and the Earth has been warming over the last two decades. Scientists believe that the recent increase in global temperatures is due to human activities that have altered the composition of the atmosphere by releasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, which trap heat reflected from the Earth.
