The most catastrophic mass extinction on Earth occurred just a few million years before the dinosaurs appeared. The culprit was a “super El Niño.”
A team of scientists from China, the UK, Germany, and Austria, led by geologist Yadong Sun from the China University of Geosciences, developed ocean current and atmospheric models from 252 million years ago to explore the most devastating event that occurred prior to the rise of the dinosaurs.
This catastrophic event is known as the Permian-Triassic extinction event (the Great Dying), which nearly severed the evolutionary path of life on Earth. Fortunately, a small number of species managed to survive.
The disaster wiped out approximately 96-97% of marine species and over 70% of terrestrial species.
An ancient geological cross-section reveals a barren surface at the time of the transition from the Permian to the Triassic, indicating the existence of a super El Niño – (Photo: UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS).
The ancestors of dinosaurs were fortunate enough to survive this event, transforming the devastated world after the disaster into an opportunity to begin an era of monstrous life that lasted through the Triassic, Jurassic, and Cretaceous periods.
If luck had been just a bit worse, dinosaurs might never have appeared on Earth, and our planet today could be devoid of life.
What triggered the Permian-Triassic extinction event remains unclear.
According to evidence gathered from around the globe, prior to the “doomsday” 252 million years ago, the Earth’s biosphere was very vibrant.
Diverse aquatic life thrived in a super ocean surrounding a single supercontinent. On that supercontinent, conifer trees formed dense forests while the four-legged ancestors of modern mammals, birds, and reptiles roamed beneath the canopy.
Everything seemed fine, but something was silently eroding life.
Of the diverse groups of four-legged animals that were developing, only 10% would continue to produce future generations. Millions of years later, marine species began to disappear one by one, until only about 1/5 of species remained.
The world had never witnessed such a loss of life, leading researchers to question why this period was so toxic.
Scientists discovered a massive layer of volcanic ash in what is now Siberia, indicating a prolonged period of volcanic activity coinciding with the transition between the Permian and Triassic periods, exactly 252 million years ago—a remarkable coincidence.
Connecting various pieces of evidence, the research team suspects a chain reaction from continuous volcanic eruptions.
This process could have depleted or severely damaged the ozone layer, while releasing enough carbon dioxide to warm the atmosphere, as the proliferation of bacteria flooded the oceans with oxygen before drawing it back out.
When analyzing the oxygen isotope ratios in the fossilized teeth of ancient marine organisms, researchers found evidence of climate changes similar to today’s El Niño phase of the Southern Oscillation.
El Niño events pose numerous challenges for humanity today, such as torrential rains in some areas and droughts in others, creating significant difficulties for the biosphere even if they only last 1-2 years.
However, at the end of the Permian period, there was a prolonged and severe super El Niño lasting for centuries.
Models indicate that this could easily trigger a mass extinction, potentially leading to an apocalypse.
This could happen again if humanity continues to emit enormous amounts of greenhouse gases, “mimicking” the impacts of ancient supervolcanoes.
The Earth could once again recover its biosphere thanks to the rare species that survive, just as dinosaurs emerged. However, it is clear that no one desires this outcome, as first, the majority of life would need to be eradicated for a super El Niño to repeat.
