The Past Is Teaching Us Valuable Lessons!
A recent study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) reveals that scientists from Oregon State University have identified that the current rate of natural CO2 increase on Earth is the fastest it has been in the last 50,000 years.
To achieve this, the research team extracted air bubbles trapped in ice cores from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). This area essentially records a relatively stable temperature during the mid-Holocene (the Holocene is a geological epoch that began about 11,700 years ago and continues to the present).
A cross-section from the ice core at WAIS. (Photo: Katherine Stelling, Oregon State University, USA).
The research team had to drill down approximately 3,200 meters to obtain sufficient ancient ice dating back around 50,000 years. The researchers then searched for chemicals trapped in the old ice layers to learn about the past climate.
After conducting extensive chemical analyses, the researchers discovered that the current increase in CO2 levels is extreme and unusual compared to the rest of Earth’s recent geological history.
Record CO2 Increase
Specifically, the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere today is more than 10 times faster than at any other point in the last 50,000 years, the researchers found through detailed chemical analysis of ancient Antarctic ice.
“Studying the past teaches us how different today is. The current rate of change in CO2 is truly unprecedented. The natural increase of CO2 this century is occurring at the fastest rate ever observed, largely due to human emissions,” said Kathleen Wendt, assistant professor in the School of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University and the lead author of the study.
Carbon dioxide, or CO2, is a naturally occurring greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. When CO2 enters the atmosphere, it contributes to climate warming due to the greenhouse effect. In the past, levels fluctuated due to ice age cycles and other natural causes, but today they are rising due to human emissions.
According to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 1.1% in 2023, reaching a new record high of 37.4 billion tons of CO2. Of this, emissions from coal accounted for over 65% of the increase in 2023.
CO2 is the main greenhouse gas emitted by humans during production, daily life, and transportation. (Illustrative photo: Chris Leboutillier/Pexels).
Using samples from the ice core in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Kathleen Wendt and colleagues investigated what was happening during the last Ice Age. They identified a pattern showing that this surge in CO2 levels occurred alongside cold spells in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich Events, which are associated with abrupt climate changes worldwide.
A Frightening “Future Picture”
Typically—when humans are not massively emitting greenhouse gases from activities such as production, transportation, and agriculture—the Earth will experience periodic increases in CO2 concentrations due to an effect known as Heinrich Events.
Named after German marine geologist Hartmut Heinrich, these events coincide with a cold spell in the North Atlantic caused by icebergs breaking off from the Laurentide ice sheet. This creates a chain reaction leading to changes in global climate patterns.
A family’s distressing flood scene in the Githurai area of Nairobi, Kenya, on April 24, 2024. (Photo: AP Photo/Patrick Ngugi).
Christo Buizert, a co-author of the study, stated in a press release: “We believe that Heinrich Events are caused by severe collapse of ice sheets in North America. This triggers a chain reaction that includes changes to tropical monsoons, southerly winds, and large amounts of CO2 released from the oceans.”
During the greatest natural increases, CO2 rose about 14 parts per million over 55 years. These spikes occurred roughly every 7,000 years. At the current rate, that level of increase only takes 5 to 6 years.
Other studies suggest that this southerly wind will be stronger in the coming century due to climate change. Researchers note that if this happens, it will reduce the Southern Ocean’s ability to absorb human-generated CO2.
At that point, the planet will be flooded with CO2—one of the most potent greenhouse gases causing global warming. The consequences will be severe. Specifically, the Earth will experience more heatwaves with increased frequency and intensity; rising temperatures will also cause rapid ice melt, leading to rising sea levels, more frequent storms and floods, along with droughts and flooding everywhere…
According to the report Global Disaster Deaths 2000-2023 by Statista, there were approximately 95,000 reported deaths due to disasters worldwide in 2023 alone. This is the highest figure recorded since 2010. The total economic damage caused by disasters worldwide in 2023 amounted to $380 billion.
As climate change increases the risk of more extreme phenomena, the suffering from human and material loss continues to haunt the world.
