This year’s weather has many similarities to 2020, a year marked by significant damage from floods in Central Vietnam that resulted in 132 deaths from landslides and 108 from flooding.
On the morning of May 10th, during the national conference on disaster prevention and search and rescue for 2024, Mr. Hoang Duc Cuong, Deputy General Director of the Meteorology and Hydrology Department (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment), stated: “the ENSO phenomenon – which refers to changes in sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific – is expected to remain neutral until June with an 80-85% probability.
From July to September, the ENSO is forecasted to transition to La Niña with a 60-65% probability and may maintain this state until the end of the year. We assess that the transition from El Niño to La Niña will lead to droughts, floods, thunderstorms, and hail similar to those in 2020, characterized by: a delayed rainy season, and a surge of storms and tropical depressions occurring in a short period.” said Mr. Cuong.
Wood swept by floods surrounding a house in Huong Hoa, Quang Tri, on October 27, 2020. (Photo: Hoang Tao).
Specifically, meteorological agencies predict 11-13 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea, with 5-7 affecting the mainland of Vietnam this year. From now until mid-June, there is little chance of storms and tropical depressions, with a focus on the latter half of the storm season, from September to November 2024.
Due to storms and tropical depressions, rainfall in the last six months of the year is forecasted to be near or above the multi-year average. Notably, heavy rainfall is expected to concentrate in the last months of the year in Central Vietnam.
The river basins in Central Vietnam and the Central Highlands are forecasted to experience floods equivalent to the multi-year average. The peak flood levels in 2024 at the lower reaches of the Ma River (Thanh Hoa) and Ca River (Nghe An, Ha Tinh) are expected to reach alert levels 1-2; the lower reaches of major rivers from Quang Binh to Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, and Khanh Hoa are expected to reach alert levels 2-3, while rivers in Phu Yen, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan may exceed alert level 2 (with the highest being level 3).
In light of these forecasts, Deputy Prime Minister Tran Luu Quang urged ministries and local authorities to proactively prepare response plans for the weather transition from El Niño to La Niña. The meteorological agency needs to enhance its forecasting capabilities to ensure that government levels can implement appropriate disaster prevention directives.
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In 2020, within just over a month from October 11 to November 15, Central Vietnam was hit by 8 storms and 2 tropical depressions accompanied by heavy rainfall. Among these, Storm Molave made landfall in Quang Nam – Quang Ngai with wind speeds of 11-12, lasting for 6 hours, making it the strongest in 20 years. Floodwaters rose rapidly on 16 main rivers in Central Vietnam. The Hieu River at Dong Ha (Quang Tri) and the Bo River at Phu Oc (Thua Thien Hue) both exceeded historical flood peaks set in 1999. Flooding occurred in 7 provinces from Nghe An to Quang Nam, peaking on October 12 when over 317,000 households with 1.2 million people were affected, lasting for up to 15 days. On October 12, workers at the Rào Trăng 3 hydropower plant in Phong Xuân commune, Phong Điền district, Thua Thien Hue province, were asleep when a mountain over 120 meters high collapsed, flattening the operational house and burying 17 workers. The natural disasters of 2020 caused 291 deaths, 64 missing persons, with the highest number of deaths from landslides at 132 and from floods at 108. More than 336,400 houses were damaged, roofs blown off, and emergency evacuations were carried out; 198,300 hectares of rice and crops were affected; 52,000 livestock and 4.11 million poultry were killed or swept away. The economic losses caused by natural disasters exceeded 35.18 trillion VND, seven times that of 2021 and nearly four times that of 2023. |
