More than 50 leading scientists have warned about the unprecedented global warming as the carbon “budget” to limit temperature within international targets is gradually depleting.
A study published on June 5 in the journal Earth System Science Data indicates that the Earth’s temperature has increased by 0.26 degrees Celsius from 2014 to 2023. During this period, the global average surface temperature rose by 1.19 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial reference level of 1850-1900. This figure has increased from the 1.14 degrees Celsius rise reported last year for the decade ending in 2022. The study emphasizes: “Human-caused warming of the Earth is accelerating at an unprecedented rate in the data record.”
People cooling off at a public water tap in hot weather in Allahabad, India, on April 28, 2022. (Photo: AFP/TTXVN).
This research is part of the periodic climate assessment series by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, published on average every six years since 1988.
The study was published concurrently with diplomats from around the world gathering in Germany this week to prepare for climate talks ahead of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) in November in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015 urged nations to limit the increase in global temperature to below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, while aiming for a safer target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The study published on June 5 shows that by the end of 2023, human activities have pushed Earth’s temperature up by more than 1.31 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. In fact, the Earth has warmed a total of 1.43 degrees Celsius when accounting for other natural factors, including the El Niño weather phenomenon.
The research indicates that the primary cause of global warming is the highest levels of greenhouse gas emissions ever recorded. Specifically, the average annual emissions from 2013 to 2022 reached 53 billion tons of carbon dioxide and equivalent gases—primarily from the use of fossil fuels like oil and gas. In 2022 alone, emissions reached up to 55 billion tons.
This means that the world’s “budget” of carbon—the estimated amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted before pushing the Earth past the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold—is rapidly declining. In 2020, the IPCC calculated the remaining carbon budget to be about 500 billion tons of CO2. By early 2024, this figure had dropped to approximately 200 billion tons.
While the study notes a positive sign that the rate of emission increase in the last decade has slowed compared to the year 2000, lead author Piers Forster also emphasized that this does not mean climate change will be mitigated.
Cofounder of the study, Pierre Friedlingstein, argues that the world not only needs to stabilize emission levels but also needs to reduce them to net-zero. According to him, if emissions continue at current levels, global warming will persist at the same intensity. He assesses that without significant changes in emission reductions, the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold will be exceeded and become “the long-term average” within the next decade.
