Severe droughts similar to those in the 1970s and 1980s may become commonplace in Africa by the end of this century due to the greenhouse effect.
Computer simulations of Africa’s climate published by the National Academy of Sciences show that rainfall during the rainy season is expected to decrease by 30% in the coming decades.
This prediction was announced on the first day of resumed climate negotiations in Montreal.
Overall, rainfall during the rainy seasons has increased since the 1980s, coinciding with rising global temperatures, and this trend is expected to continue. However, computer models indicate that rainfall could decline to unprecedented levels in the latter half of this century.
The drought conditions that prevailed in the 1970s and 1980s may reoccur in the coming decades if greenhouse gas emissions are not controlled.
The lead author of this study, Professor Isaac Held from Princeton University, stated that these results were unexpected, and they are working to clarify the mechanisms behind droughts. As these details are explored, new predictions will have more grounding.
However, the authors emphasize that the impact of the greenhouse effect is significant, and severe droughts in the future could very well be a result of human-induced climate change.
