The La Niña phenomenon is forecasted to occur in the fall, bringing increased rainfall and storms to Vietnam in the last months of 2024.
According to the assessment by the National Center for Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting, the current state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still neutral and will continue until about the end of August 2024.
The ENSO is expected to shift to a La Niña phase this fall (from September to November 2024) with a probability of 60-70%. A rapid transition of the ocean-atmosphere from warm to cold will be an unfavorable factor that could lead to adverse weather conditions in many parts of the world, including Vietnam.
La Niña is expected to occur around September – November this year.
From now until the end of September, it will remain the main rainy season in Northern Vietnam, so we will continue to face the occurrence of heavy rainfall, posing a very high risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas as seen recently.
Looking further ahead into the second half of 2024, Central Vietnam may face a series of storms and floods due to the emergence and development of La Niña, coinciding with the rainy and stormy season in this region. La Niña can increase the frequency and intensity of storms and tropical depressions. Warnings indicate that from now until the end of 2024, 8-10 storms/tropical depressions may occur in the East Sea. Among these, approximately 4-5 storms are expected to directly impact the mainland of Vietnam.
The East Sea may see 8 – 10 storms/tropical depressions in the last months of 2024.
Additionally, Central Vietnam may experience significant flooding, urban inundation, flash floods, and landslides due to higher than average rainfall.
Historically, years transitioning to La Niña often see severe natural disasters. In fact, what has occurred this year proves this point. According to the statistics from the Department of Dyke Management and Flood and Storm Prevention, heavy rainfall in Northern Vietnam alone in July resulted in 59 fatalities. From the beginning of the year to now, natural disasters have caused 112 deaths and missing persons, which is 1.5 times higher than the same period last year.
The number of fatalities due to natural disasters in the first seven months of 2024 is 1.5 times that of the same period in 2023.
Most recently, in 2020, there was also a year in which the early part of the year experienced El Niño, transitioning to La Niña by the end of the year. In the last months of 2020, La Niña intensified, leading to a series of storms and floods.
Rescue forces searching for missing persons in a landslide incident at the forest ranger station of sub-region 67 in Thừa Thiên Huế in October 2020, resulting in the loss of 13 officials (source: TTXVN)
There were up to 15 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea, of which 9 directly affected the mainland of Vietnam, significantly higher than the long-term average. Central Vietnam was the hardest hit, enduring 42 consecutive days of storms on top of storms, floods upon floods, with inundation and landslides occurring everywhere. Terrifying landslides occurred at Rào Trăng 3 Hydropower Plant and the forest ranger station in sub-region 67 in Thừa Thiên Huế; the Economic-Defense Unit 337 in Quảng Trị; and Trà Leng in Quảng Nam, causing severe damage to lives and property.
