According to leading scientists, influenza is the pathogen most likely to cause a new pandemic in the near future.
The Guardian reports on an international survey set to be published next weekend, revealing that 57% of senior disease experts currently believe that a strain of the influenza virus will be the cause of the next deadly infectious disease outbreak worldwide.
Jon Salmanton-García, a researcher at the University of Cologne, asserts his belief that influenza poses the greatest pandemic threat globally based on long-term studies showing it continues to evolve and mutate.
Details of the survey – which includes contributions from a total of 187 senior scientists – will be revealed at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) conference in Barcelona next weekend.
An artist painting a mural during the Covid-19 pandemic in Manchester. Some scientists believe that Sars-CoV-2 remains a threat. (Photo: Reuters).
According to 21% of experts participating in the study, the potential cause of the next pandemic, following influenza, could be a virus named Disease X – which science has yet to identify. Experts believe that the next pandemic will likely arise from an unidentified microorganism emerging unexpectedly, similar to how Sars-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19, began infecting humans in 2019.
So far, some scientists still believe that Sars-CoV-2 remains a threat, with 15% of those surveyed in the study considering it a very likely cause of a future pandemic.
Other lethal microorganisms – such as Lassa virus, Nipah virus, Ebola… – were rated as a serious global threat by only 1% to 2% of respondents. Salmanton-García added: “Influenza continues to exist at a very high level, making it the number one pandemic threat in the eyes of most scientists worldwide.”
Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) raised concerns about the alarming spread of the H5N1 influenza strain, which is causing millions of cases of avian influenza globally. This outbreak began in 2020 and has led to the death or culling of tens of millions of poultry and the destruction of millions of wild birds.
Most recently, this virus has spread to mammals, including livestock, which are now infected in 12 U.S. states, increasing concerns about the risk to humans.
Expert Daniel Goldhill from the Royal Veterinary College in Hatfield confirmed to Nature magazine last week that the more the virus infects various mammal species, the greater the chances it will evolve into a strain dangerous to humans.
Virologist Ed Hutchinson from the University of Glasgow added that the appearance of the H5N1 virus in livestock is surprising. “Pigs can contract avian influenza, but until recently, livestock could not. Thus, the emergence of H5N1 in cattle is shocking.”
So far, there are no signs that H5N1 spreads from human to human. However, in hundreds of cases of human infections through contact with animals over the past 20 years, the consequences have been severe. Jeremy Farrar, chief scientist at the WHO, stated: “The fatality rate is extremely high because humans have no natural immunity to the virus.”
