Life in major cities will become unbearable if the Earth continues to warm at the current rate, researchers warned on September 19.
The World Resources Institute (WRI) studied what could happen in nearly 1,000 major cities if global temperatures continue to rise towards a 3°C increase compared to pre-industrial levels.
Researchers found that the impact on these cities and the 2.1 billion people living there would be catastrophic compared to a scenario where the Earth warms by only 1.5°C.
People moving on the streets under the scorching sun in Seoul, South Korea – (Photo: YONHAP).
According to scientists, with a 3°C increase, many cities could face prolonged heatwaves lasting for months, leading to a surge in energy demand for air conditioning, as well as an increased risk of widespread insect-borne diseases.
The Paris Agreement was adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) in 2015, where around 200 countries and territories agreed on a series of climate protection measures aimed at limiting the average global temperature increase to 1.5°C to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.
However, according to the latest assessment by the United Nations, with the current climate commitments worldwide, the Earth’s temperature could rise up to 2.9°C.
Mr. Rogier van den Berg from WRI, a research organization based in the United States, emphasized that the difference between the 1.5°C scenario and the 3°C scenario could significantly affect the lives of billions of people worldwide.
The report highlights the particular risks faced by rapidly developing cities in low-income countries.
By 2050, two-thirds of the global population will live in cities, with over 90% of urban growth occurring in Africa and Asia. Residents in low-income cities will bear the brunt of these impacts.
In the largest cities, WRI estimates that the longest annual heatwave could last an average of 16.3 days under the 1.5°C scenario and 24.5 days under the 3°C scenario. The frequency of heatwaves could also increase, from an average of 4.9 heatwaves per year in cities to 6.4 heatwaves per year.
This will increase the demand for energy and air conditioning. Hotter cities also create optimal conditions for mosquitoes that carry viruses such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya to thrive, leading to widespread outbreaks.
