From now until the end of 2024, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which includes the phenomena of El Niño and La Niña, is expected to shift into a La Niña state, leading to various dangerous weather patterns.
Providing specific information about the upcoming weather situation, Deputy Head of the Weather Forecast Department at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Nguyen Huu Thanh, stated that around July 13-14, heatwaves will cease in the Northern and Central regions. However, towards the end of July, the heat in the Northern region is expected to intensify and persist into August, with approximately 3-4 heatwave episodes lasting 2-4 days each.
In the Central region, heatwaves may continue until September, primarily focusing on July and August 2024, with about 4-6 episodes lasting 2-4 days each. The occurrence of heat and extreme heat is likely to be more frequent than the average for this period. Average temperatures are generally expected to be 0.5-1 degree Celsius higher than the historical average for the same period.
Landslide point at Km174+300 on National Highway 279 through Muong Kim commune, Than Uyen district, Lai Chau province. (Illustrative photo: TTXVN)
Regarding rainfall and flooding, the total rainfall in the Northern region during July-August is expected to be approximately in line with the historical average; however, in September, it may be higher by 10-20%, with the Northwest region expected to be lower by 5-10% compared to the historical average.
The total rainfall from July to September in the Central region is anticipated to exceed the historical average by 10-30%, while in the North Central region, August’s rainfall is expected to be roughly at the historical average. The Central Highlands and Southern region are expected to have total rainfall higher by 5-15% compared to the historical averages.
“All regions across the country continue to face the risk of dangerous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, whirlwinds, lightning, and strong winds“, Nguyen Huu Thanh noted.
Additionally, from July to September, the Southwest monsoon will be active, leading to wave heights in the offshore Central region and the East Sea (including the Paracel Islands) reaching approximately 2-4 meters, causing rough seas. During this period, coastal areas in the Northern and North Central regions need to be cautious of large waves combined with storm surges and tropical depressions, which pose a high risk of riverbank and coastal erosion.
In the Southeast coastal region, from now until the end of September, there may be occurrences of high tides. However, this area is not affected by the Northeast monsoon, so the risk of flooding in low-lying areas and regions outside the dikes remains low. Water levels at Vung Tau station during high tide events are expected to be below 4.1 meters. In the Southwestern coastal region, from late July into August, high tides combined with large waves due to the strong Southwest monsoon will necessitate caution against unusually high sea levels that could lead to coastal erosion.
Assessing the weather trends from now until the end of 2024, Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, believes that the ENSO phenomenon will likely remain in a La Niña state with a probability of 80-90%, increasing the risk of consecutive storms in the last months of the year, especially in the Central region.
From now until the end of the year, between 10-12 storms and tropical depressions are expected to occur in the Northern East Sea, with about 5-7 directly affecting Vietnam; there is also a possibility of strong storms forming over the East Sea. Coastal areas in the Northern and Central regions must continue to be vigilant against large waves associated with storm surges and tropical depressions.
From October to December, the average temperature nationwide is expected to be about in line with the historical average for the same period, while in the Northern region, the average temperature in October 2024 may be 0.5-1 degree Celsius higher than the historical average for that time.
To cope with these dangerous weather patterns, meteorological experts recommend that the public should regularly monitor weather forecasts and warnings on the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting’s website at nchmf.gov.vn, as well as local meteorological departments and regularly update the latest hydro-meteorological information through official media outlets at both the central and local levels to proactively respond.
Authorities and relevant agencies must promptly provide disaster forecast information to the public, promote awareness, and strictly enforce prohibitions on activities in high-risk areas susceptible to thunderstorms, whirlwinds, lightning, hail, flash floods, and landslides… Citizens should closely follow the local government’s guidelines on disaster response and prevention.
