According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the ENSO phenomenon is currently in a weak La Niña state and is expected to maintain this intensity until the end of 2021 with a probability of about 80%.
In the early months of 2022, sea surface temperatures are expected to gradually rise but will still be below the long-term average (LTA), and ENSO will remain in a weak La Niña state. From around April to May 2022, ENSO is likely to transition to a neutral state.
From now until the end of 2021, there may be about 1-2 storms and tropical depressions occurring in the South China Sea, which could directly affect the mainland, particularly in the southern provinces. In the early months of 2022, there is still a possibility of tropical cyclones developing in the South China Sea.
This winter will be colder than last year.
The Central and Southern Central provinces should remain vigilant for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall occurring from now until mid-December 2021.
Forecasts indicate that the rainy season in the Central Highlands and Southern regions will end late, with a high likelihood of unseasonal rains during the dry season months.
In December 2021, temperatures in the Northwest, Northeast, and Southern Central regions are expected to be around the LTA, while other areas may be 0-0.5 degrees Celsius lower than the LTA.
In January 2022, temperatures in the Northern and Central regions are generally expected to be 0-0.5 degrees Celsius higher, while other areas will be around the LTA. From February to April 2022, temperatures are expected to be 0-0.5 degrees Celsius lower than the LTA, except for some mountainous provinces in the Northeast and Northwest regions, which will be near the LTA.
According to assessments, intense cold spells are concentrated from December 2021 to February 2022; the first significant cold spell is likely to occur around mid-December 2021. The average temperature during the winter of 2021-2022 is expected to be lower than that of the winter of 2020-2021.
Regarding rainfall in the Northern region from December 2021 to February 2022, there will be less rain and total rainfall is expected to be lower than the LTA for the same period. In March 2022, total rainfall is expected to be higher by 5-15%.
