A new study has sounded the alarm: With current greenhouse gas emissions, the Arctic will experience its first ice-free day by 2027.
Sea ice in the Arctic is melting at an unprecedented rate of over 12% per decade, which means we are racing toward a day when nearly all the ice here disappears.
A study published last November in the journal Nature Communications indicates that this alarming milestone for the planet will occur within the next 9 to 20 years from 2023, regardless of how humans change their greenhouse gas emissions. If current emission rates continue, this could happen in just 3 years.
A polar bear standing on a floating ice slab in the sea. This species relies on ice to move and search for food (Photo: Sepp Friedhuber/ Getty Images).
Earth’s sea ice is charted annually using satellite data, which has measured fluctuations in ice at both poles since 1979.
Global sea ice plays a crucial role in regulating ocean and air temperatures, sustaining marine habitats, and providing energy for ocean currents that transport heat and nutrients worldwide.
The surface of sea ice also reflects a portion of the sun’s energy back into space through a process known as the albedo effect. This effect can work in reverse—when sea ice melts, darker water is exposed that absorbs more sunlight.
This means that as our planet warms, the Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world.
The rapid warming has caused severe and noticeable consequences. The extent of the planet’s northern sea ice, which averaged 6.85 million km2 from 1979 to 1992, has plummeted to just 4.28 million km2 this year.
This ongoing decline means that future climate shifts are increasingly likely to push ice below the threshold of 1 million square kilometers, below which the area is considered “ice-free.”
Based on the study’s findings, scientists warn that this day could arrive in just three to six years, and it is certainly unavoidable by the 2030s.
However, the more we can reduce CO2 emissions, the less severe the shock from Arctic ice loss will be, and any emissions reduction will delay the day our planet loses its ice.
