Top experts at NASA predicted back in 2021 that the Sun would enter a new Solar Cycle 25 that would be quite mild; however, the reality has turned out to be completely opposite.
During this new cycle, the Sun has continuously produced numerous sunspots and emitted significant solar winds, creating more solar flares directed towards Earth. Most space weather scientists around the world are scratching their heads, stating: “We still know very little about our Sun.”
The Sun continuously produces numerous sunspots and emits significant solar winds – (Photo: NEWSWEEK)
According to Space.com, during this time, a physicist has emerged as a “dark horse” in the field of space weather forecasting. His model of solar behavior appears to have been accurate.
Solar Cycle 24 officially ended in December 2019. This was one of the weakest recorded solar cycles. Each solar cycle lasts about 11 years.
When a group of experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) came together to estimate the solar activity for the next Cycle 25, they predicted that this new cycle would also be weak.
However, at the same time, another prediction was made. A research group led by Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist and deputy director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), predicted the exact opposite: that Solar Cycle 25 could be among the strongest cycles recorded in history.
McIntosh told Space.com: “We reviewed over 140 years of data on solar magnetic activity and its relationship with the number of sunspots, and discovered a pattern that shapes how large or small the upcoming sunspot cycle will be. Based on that, we made a scientific prediction that the energy amplitude of Cycle 25 could be double that of Cycle 24.”
The research team published their prediction in the journal Solar Physics in November 2020.
Since then, while experts at NOAA and NASA have been confused by their inaccurate predictions, McIntosh and his colleagues have accurately tracked solar activity as they had forecasted.
For instance, while NOAA and NASA predicted only 27 sunspots in December 2021, the Sun produced 67 spots.
In May 2022, instead of the 37 sunspots predicted by NOAA and NASA, there were 97 sunspots. The high-intensity solar activity has also caused geomagnetic storms on Earth, damaging satellites in orbit and creating stunning auroras.
Tzu-Wei Fang, a space scientist at NOAA, agrees that the official forecast for Solar Cycle 25 is inaccurate. She also acknowledges that current understanding of the factors driving solar activity is still quite limited.
“We do not know what is driving this intense solar activity,” Fang told Space.com. However, she warns that it is too early to draw conclusions about the current solar cycle.
