Researchers from the University of London have discovered that increased warming in the Arctic will cause global temperatures to exceed the 2°C threshold (compared to pre-industrial levels noted in the Paris Agreement) eight years earlier than expected.
As climate change continues to impact our daily lives, regions in the Arctic are silently being devastated. Arctic ice coverage is declining by 13% each decade and is becoming significantly thinner. Consequently, Arctic sea levels are rising at an alarming rate, currently accounting for 35% of global sea-level rise. This negatively affects Arctic wildlife, directly threatening species that depend on ice while also indirectly impacting other organisms.
Maurizio Azzaro, Director of the Polar Science Institute in the Messina region (Italy), stated: “And this concerning phenomenon is occurring because the Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world.” This phenomenon, known as Arctic Amplification, has now been acknowledged and recognized by the scientific community.
Ice is melting rapidly in the Arctic.
Azzaro explains: “One reason why Arctic Amplification is occurring is that the Arctic is very white due to ice and snow. When climate change melts that white surface, darker surfaces are exposed, which absorb more sunlight, causing the Arctic to retain more heat. This is known as a feedback loop due to the decrease in ice reflectivity.”
Azzaro further noted: “Other feedback loops, including those related to clouds and oceans, also play a crucial role in driving Arctic Amplification.” Expressing deep concern, Azzaro said: “The Arctic as we know it is disappearing very rapidly.”
Impact of Arctic Amplification on Global Temperatures
However, the impacts of Arctic Amplification may not be confined to Arctic regions. Due to Arctic Amplification, changes caused by warming are also occurring faster in the rest of the world, though not as dramatically as in the Arctic.
According to a new study conducted by researchers from the University of London, Arctic Amplification will lead to global temperatures reaching the 2°C threshold of the Paris Agreement eight years sooner than when the region warms to the global average.
The Paris Agreement is a 2015 international treaty on climate change aimed at keeping the average global temperature increase below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Alistair Duffey, a PhD candidate in the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of London and the lead author of the study, stated: “For many, the temperature threshold of the Paris Agreement is a primary focus for understanding and quantifying climate change. Our research aims to interpret climate change processes in the Arctic in more familiar terms to the general public.”
To conduct the study, researchers compared future climate change forecasts with and without Arctic Amplification. Duffey explained: “This allowed us to quantify the direct impact of Arctic Amplification.”
Less Ice, Changing Currents, and Extreme Weather
Arctic Amplification also has significant other effects. Duffey noted: “As we warm the Arctic, we are melting a substantial portion of the long-stable frozen ground in the Northern Hemisphere, known as permafrost. This can increase methane and carbon dioxide emissions, adding more greenhouse gases to the global warming mechanism.”
Azzaro elaborated: <em“The melting of permafrost can also lead to the release of ancient dormant viruses and bacteria, as well as trigger landslides and other geological accidents. The consequences for the biosphere and the environment could be catastrophic.”
Studies have also shown that the addition of large amounts of freshwater from melting glaciers can disrupt ocean circulation, thereby directly impacting marine life.
But perhaps the most alarming concern is that once ocean currents change, the climate in Europe could be altered in unimaginable scenarios.
Azzaro added: “Furthermore, there is evidence that increased warming in the Arctic and the loss of sea ice are directly related to extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere.”
Duffey also warned: “Warming in the Arctic adds uncertainty to climate prediction efforts. This is because there are some changes in quantifying Arctic Amplification within the scientific community, which affects various climate predictions for the future.”
