One of the most common natural disasters currently occurring in the United States is thunderstorms. Due to their unpredictable nature, many people have died from this phenomenon compared to damages from other disasters. Typically, there are no warnings prior to these events; however, researchers at Tel Aviv University are making significant efforts to predict the locations and timing of storms based on lightning strikes.
Professor Colin Price, coordinator of the “International Thunderstorm Research Project” and head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Tel Aviv University, is studying the relationship between lightning and the subsequent lightning strikes. A three-year study involving scientists from five European countries hopes that its results will be recognized by weather forecasting centers worldwide. The aim is to develop a warning system that allows people to monitor storm conditions. “This type of thunderstorm is entirely different from regular floods because it results from rapidly melting snow. Thunderstorms are usually short-lived but can release a significant amount of rain,” noted Professor Price, an expert on climate change. “We are relying on data from lightning strikes to develop a system that can provide timely warnings to the public and help minimize human casualties.”
As is known, lightning detection systems can be used to send signals to mobile phones, RSS feeds, GPS devices, and other equipment to alert people about the storm’s path and prevent damages.
“Rapid Forecasting” of Storms
Unlike regular storms that arrive slowly and provide warning signs, thunderstorms are particularly dangerous because they strike quickly and often originate from lightning in a short period. By measuring the radiation from lightning, researchers can accurately pinpoint where the highest density of lightning and heavy rainfall will occur.
A “violent” thunderstorm unleashed lightning strikes at the famous Rocky Mountains near Denver, Colorado. Researchers are studying the relationship between thunder and the lightning that follows, (Photo: iStockphoto/David Parsons)
The data collected is used to predict the storm’s origin and where the heavy rain will strike—these forecasts are crucial as the impact of such storms heavily depends on the landscape, slope, and vegetation in the area. “Rapid forecasting” can provide information about storm conditions within a few hours, whereas “standard forecasting” can only provide information 1-2 days in advance, though this remains a topic of debate.
By analyzing real-time lightning data, researchers from Tel Aviv University can determine the storm’s path over the next few hours and warn the public about its danger level. Such a forecasting tool, accurate with weather patterns, is expected to become a reality, according to climate change researchers today.
Warning Signals for Thunderstorms
A study from the lightning project can be utilized to infer information anywhere in the world, including areas in the U.S. that tend to experience more thunderstorms. For instance, the National Lightning Detection Network in the U.S. can easily apply the results of the Lightning Research Project.
“This will become a vital tool in the future and will receive more attention in the coming decade as we continue to employ satellite lightning detection methods. The data obtained will be used to predict storms occurring anywhere. The U.S. is also launching satellites equipped with lightning detection capabilities that will take images every 15 minutes from an altitude of 36,000 km above the Earth,” Professor Price stated.
