On April 18, 1906, a powerful earthquake measuring 7.9 on the Richter scale flattened the city of San Francisco. Over 3,000 people lost their lives due to the earthquake and subsequent fires.
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The 7.9 magnitude earthquake on April 18, 1906. |
On April 18, to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the historic earthquake in San Francisco, researchers recreated the earthquake digitally to predict potential losses and casualties had a similar event occurred in today’s context.
According to the computer simulations, if an earthquake of equivalent magnitude were to occur today, it would result in the deaths of more than 3,400 people, the majority of architectural structures would be destroyed, 700,000 individuals would be left homeless or displaced, 130,000 buildings would be damaged or destroyed, and direct economic losses would exceed $125 billion. This loss would be comparable to the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina or the flooding in New Orleans.
This research project, titled “If the Earthquake Happens Again,” hypothesizes that if a quake of similar intensity and affected area as the one in San Francisco 100 years ago were to happen today, the devastation would be even greater, as the population density in this area has increased tenfold since then, and property values have risen significantly.
The project is led by engineer Charles Cotchell and his team. They investigated demographics in 2,000 areas, meticulously documenting the types of architecture, their ages, sizes, values, and the population counts in each surveyed area. The research team also noted poorly constructed homes to estimate potential damages.
Charles is very confident in the accuracy of their calculations and has garnered the support of structural researchers. Seismologists agree that it is likely another earthquake of a similar magnitude to the 1906 quake will occur in the Bay Area, though the exact time and location of the fault line’s rupture remain uncertain.
The U.S. Geological Survey has also predicted that a major earthquake occurs approximately every 200 to 250 years.
The city of San Francisco’s commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the major earthquake also serves as an opportunity to reassess preparations for potential future earthquakes.
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