New Study Accurately Predicts Number of Deaths Due to Climate Change by 2100
According to the Daily Mail, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry have utilized advanced numerical simulations to estimate global mortality rates from air pollution and extreme temperatures. The analysis indicates that up to 30 million people could die by the end of this century due to climate change and air pollution.
People using umbrellas to shield themselves from the heat in Tokyo, Japan, on July 4, 2024. (Illustrative image: THX/TTXVN).
Dr. Andrea Pozzer, the lead researcher, stated that in the year 2000, approximately 1.6 million people died from extreme temperatures – both cold and hot. By the end of this century, under the most likely scenario, this number is projected to rise to 10.8 million, an increase of about seven times.
“For air pollution, the death toll in 2000 was around 4.1 million. By the end of the century, this figure is expected to climb to 19.5 million, a fivefold increase,” he noted.
The study comes right after a United Nations report warned that Earth is on track to experience a “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C this century.
The researchers conducted calculations based on forecasts from 2000 to 2090, analyzed in ten-year intervals. The analysis suggests there will likely be significant regional differences in mortality due to climate change.
According to the research, South Asia and East Asia will be the most heavily impacted regions due to an aging population, where air pollution remains a major factor.
Conversely, in high-income regions such as Western Europe, North America, Australasia (a region of Oceania), and the Asia-Pacific, deaths related to extreme temperatures are expected to exceed those caused by air pollution.
In some countries within these regions – such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, and New Zealand, changes are already occurring.
Experts predict that this discrepancy will increase as extreme temperatures become a more significant health risk than air pollution, even in Central and Eastern European countries (Poland and Romania) and some regions in South America (Argentina and Chile).
Melting ice due to warming temperatures in Greenland on August 16, 2023. (Photo: AFP/TTXVN).
By 2100, the health risks associated with temperature are expected to surpass those related to air pollution, affecting about one-fifth of the world’s population.
The researchers hope that these findings will highlight the urgent need for actions to mitigate climate change.
“Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is a direct threat to public health,” Dr. Pozzer emphasized.
Jean Sciare, Director of the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center at the Cyprus Institute, stated that these findings underscore the importance of implementing drastic mitigation measures right now to prevent future loss of life.
The study was released just after the United Nations published its annual report on the emission reductions needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. According to the UN, the world is on track for a temperature increase between 2.6°C and 3.1°C, depending on the level of commitment to climate change action.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned: “We are in a dangerous situation. If leaders do not close the emissions gap, we will plunge headlong into a climate disaster, where the poorest and most vulnerable will suffer the most.”
