A new study led by the University of Leeds (United Kingdom) forecasts that the hot and dry conditions brought about by climate change will reduce the number of areas suitable for malaria transmission starting from 2025.
In the research published on May 9 in the journal Science, Associate Professor Dr. Mark Smith from the School of Geography at the University of Leeds, the lead author of the study, stated that this research will assess areas with lower or higher transmission factors for malaria.
Health workers vaccinating children against malaria in Gisambai (Kenya). (Photo: AFP/TTXVN).
According to him, as calculations regarding water flow become more detailed, humans will be able to implement timely interventions to prevent the spread of malaria, especially in the context of scarce medical resources.
Co-author of the study, Professor Chris Thomas from the University of Lincoln, noted that an important takeaway from the research is that malaria outbreaks do not only occur in stagnant water areas due to rain, but also in large river floodplains, arid regions, and typical savannas found in many parts of Africa.
Additionally, another surprising aspect in the new model is the change in the length of seasons concerning climate change, which could significantly impact infectious diseases.
Another co-author, Professor Simon Gosling, who specializes in climate risk and environmental modeling at the University of Nottingham, mentioned that the new study illustrates the complex ways in which surface water alters the risk of malaria transmission across Africa.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the number of deaths due to malaria peaked in 2022 with 608,000 cases, 95% of which were in Africa.
In recent years, heavy rainfall and flooding in several African countries have created numerous stagnant water areas, becoming breeding grounds for malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
In last year’s WHO World Malaria Report, the organization introduced a chapter on the relationship between malaria and climate change for the first time, considering it a potential risk.
