Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists predict that in this century, global temperatures will rise by at least 2.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
According to an exclusive survey by The Guardian, nearly 80% of respondents, all members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), anticipate that global temperatures will increase by at least 2.5 degrees Celsius. Among them, nearly half predict that temperatures will rise by at least 3 degrees Celsius. Only 6% believe that temperatures will not exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold set by international agreements.
The climate crisis has caused profound damage to lives and livelihoods worldwide. (Illustrative photo: The Guardian).
Many scientists envision a future shrouded in “dark shadows”—characterized by famine, conflict, mass migration due to heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and storms occurring with greater intensity and frequency than ever before.
Many experts express feelings of despair, anger, and fear regarding government actions, despite clear scientific evidence.
Gretta Pecl, Director of the Marine Sociology Centre at the University of Tasmania, states: “I think we are nearing a phase of significant social disruption within the next five years. Society will be stunned by a series of extreme events, and food production will be severely disrupted. I cannot feel more hopeless about the future.”
Many scientists emphasize that we must continue the fight against climate change, regardless of how high global temperatures may rise, as even reducing temperatures by 1 degree would alleviate human suffering.
Professor Peter Cox at the University of Exeter notes: “Climate change will not suddenly become dangerous at 1.5 degrees Celsius—it’s a done deal. And it’s not a ‘game over’ scenario if we exceed 2 degrees Celsius.”
The Guardian contacted the lead authors and editors who have assessed IPCC reports since 2018. Nearly half (380 out of 843) responded. The IPCC reports are considered the gold standard assessments of climate change, agreed upon by all governments and produced by experts in physical and social sciences. The results indicate that many of them predict the level of climate devastation that will occur in the coming decades.
The climate crisis has already caused severe damage to lives and livelihoods worldwide, with average global temperatures rising by 1.2 degrees Celsius over the past four years.
Nathalie Hilmi from the Monaco Scientific Centre predicts temperatures will rise by 3 degrees Celsius and agrees that: “We cannot maintain temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
Scientist Jesse Keenan at Tulane University suggests that this is just the beginning.
Trees burned due to wildfires in Rhodes, Greece, which experienced the largest wildfire ever recorded in Europe. (Photo: AFP/Getty Images).
Experts note that the most important task now is to prepare measures to protect people from the worst climate disasters.
Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, an expert at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, expresses: “I am extremely concerned about the cost to human life.”
The goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius in order to prevent the worst climate crisis is considered a crucial guiding principle for international negotiations. However, current climate policies indicate that the world seems to be heading towards a temperature increase of about 2.7 degrees Celsius. The Guardian’s survey shows that very few IPCC experts anticipate that the world will take the significant actions necessary to reduce that temperature level.
Dipak Dasgupta, an expert at the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, states: “If this world, no matter how wealthy, does nothing to address the plight of the poor, then ultimately we all lose.”
Experts also explain the reasons why the world cannot address the climate crisis. Nearly three-quarters of respondents attribute the cause to a lack of political will, while 60% blame the protection of corporate interests, such as the fossil fuel industry.
Many also mention inequality and the failure of wealthy nations to assist the poor, those who bear the brunt of climate impacts.
Meanwhile, one-quarter of IPCC experts believe that global temperatures will rise by 2 degrees Celsius or lower. Yet they themselves are pessimistic about their hopes.
Henry Neufeldt at the United Nations Copenhagen Climate Centre shares: “I believe we have all the solutions needed for a 1.5-degree pathway, and we will implement them in the next 20 years. But I fear that our actions may be too late and we will exceed one or more tipping points.”
Lisa Schipper at the University of Bonn in Germany states: “My only source of hope is that as an educator, I can witness the next generation becoming smarter in environmental policy.”
