“The risk and likelihood of a pandemic occurring are very high. This is entirely justified.” Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung reiterated this at the conference to implement the emergency action plan for preventing avian flu outbreaks and human influenza pandemics.
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Vaccination against avian flu in Nhon Hoa Loc commune, Tan Thanh district (Long An) on October 10 |
The urgency and decisiveness were evident in the 90-minute conference held yesterday, attended by representatives from various ministries, sectors, and localities.
Very High Risk
According to the Deputy Prime Minister, through three avian flu outbreaks (starting from late 2003, each outbreak four months apart), type A influenza with subtype H5N1 has appeared in Vietnam; there have been 90 infected cases, with 40 fatalities across 31 provinces and cities.
Compared to other countries in the region and some countries that reported outbreaks around the same time (or even before Vietnam), the number of cases and the mortality rate in Vietnam are quite high. For instance, Thailand had 12 out of 17 cases resulting in death; Indonesia had 6 out of 20; while the Netherlands in 2003 had only 1 out of 83 cases resulting in death.
Historically, this period is reminiscent of the influenza pandemic in Spain (1918-1919), which later spread to many other countries, claiming the lives of 20 to 40 million people.
Three Phases of the Emergency Plan The emergency action plan consists of three phases (corresponding to the six “stages” defined by the WHO), each phase containing specific response measures for different scenarios. Vietnam is currently at “phase” three, which is part of stage one, meaning that there are infected individuals, but no human-to-human transmission has occurred. Stage two will correspond to phases four and five. This implies that the disease has begun to spread from person to person in a limited manner, but has not yet reached pandemic levels. Phase six, stage three occurs when a pandemic is present, and the virus can spread widely. At each phase, the emergency action plan outlines specific objectives and response measures to the outbreak. If the outbreak reaches stage two, the National Steering Committee for Pandemic Influenza Prevention will declare a state of emergency. All trading of livestock and poultry in infected areas will be strictly prohibited, and all poultry will be culled. Quarantine checkpoints will be established around the outbreak zones. The entire area with the outbreak will be isolated for 21 days. In the worst-case scenario (stage three), assuming a pandemic occurs with hundreds to thousands of infected individuals, along with response measures consistent with stage two, the government will declare a nationwide state of emergency. Response measures for these phases are implemented under the principle of “three on-site”: forces, materials, and handling on-site. |
If a pandemic occurs, Vietnam could see approximately 16 million infected individuals (20% of the population), with around 1.6 million expected fatalities. This does not account for the significant impacts on all economic, social, and public health aspects.
Financial Focus
In light of the pandemic risk, the Prime Minister has approved the emergency action plan and directed ministries, sectors, and localities to focus on implementing this plan.
Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung stated that the government’s top goal is to “do everything possible, to make every effort, and to mobilize the entire political system to resolutely prevent the occurrence of a pandemic. If a pandemic does occur, we must prepare thoroughly to minimize the spread of the disease and reduce human casualties as much as possible.”
According to Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Bui Ba Bong, the funding for implementing the emergency action plan will amount to nearly 7 trillion VND.
This budget will focus on purchasing equipment, investing in essential construction projects, such as buying 10,000 chemical spraying machines, stocking various chemicals, and providing 5,000 protective suits for each commune (totaling approximately 20 million suits), and vaccines for immunization.
The Ministry of Health has also indicated that it will require an estimated 14 trillion VND to upgrade healthcare facilities and equip them with necessary supplies and chemicals for the pandemic prevention plan (from 2006 to 2010).
The Prime Minister has approved the Ministry of Health to procure sufficient stocks of prophylactic medicines, 1,000 ventilators, and to quickly invest in level 3 biosafety laboratories to support emergency pandemic prevention efforts.
To proactively respond to the pandemic, Bui Ba Bong mentioned that the emergency action plan also proposes conducting pandemic drills at three levels corresponding to stages 1, 2, and 3, with a total drill budget of 20 billion VND.
DUC BINH
The risk of a human influenza pandemic is very high if localities do not remain vigilant and focus on preventing the reoccurrence of outbreaks. Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Bui Ba Bong spoke about the measures being implemented to combat the flu outbreak… * Between goals and actual results, there are sometimes gaps. Is there such a phenomenon in the avian flu prevention efforts? – No, our avian flu prevention activities have been very decisive and effective recently. In fact, it has been shown that avian flu outbreaks in Vietnam have decreased significantly compared to two years ago, by about 80-90%. If we continue to effectively organize avian flu prevention efforts as we have been, I believe that Vietnam will not experience major flu outbreaks nationwide. The vaccination program for over 150 million poultry is being implemented in Vietnam and has received high praise from dozens of leading epidemiologists worldwide. No other country has conducted vaccination on such a large scale, especially under the conditions of small-scale farming like Vietnam currently has. Our biggest challenge right now is that we have to import vaccines from China, so it is difficult to avoid issues and delays… Despite a week’s delay, many localities have now provided sufficient vaccines, and the vaccination schedule for poultry is expected to be completed by the end of November 2005 as planned. * The number of poultry is constantly increasing, not to mention the considerable number of “illegal” waterfowl (ducks). Will these groups be vaccinated? – Until early 2007, the state will support vaccination costs for poultry and will continue to do so. After this period, poultry farmers will have to pay for the vaccinations. As for ducks, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development previously directed localities to prohibit farming until February 2006. However, the number of ducks has still been rising due to illegal farming by some households. Nonetheless, our plan is to vaccinate all poultry, whether legal or illegal, to limit potential sources of disease transmission. However, I also emphasize that we do not encourage households to raise poultry illegally, and localities must actively control this activity. In addition to vaccination, avian influenza prevention efforts will continue to focus on two important tasks: organizing nationwide disinfection activities for two consecutive months (starting from October 15) and promptly detecting and eliminating newly emerging outbreak hotspots. Experience from the past two years of combating outbreaks has shown that localities that effectively organize disinfection activities, even in areas with flu outbreaks, have significantly limited the spread of disease among poultry. * Thank you. HAI DANG conducted the interview |
