The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) has announced that threats stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, and emerging technologies are the reasons why the Doomsday Clock remains set at 90 seconds to midnight.
The Doomsday Clock, an iconic tool that reflects the proximity to catastrophic disaster, remains unchanged at 90 seconds to midnight. The clock moved to this point for the first time last year, after being set at 100 seconds to midnight for three consecutive years. The hands of the clock have stayed in the same position since 2023 due to existential risks posed by climate change and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, as announced by a representative of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) on January 23. BAS is a non-profit organization comprising scientists and policy experts who determine the timeline of the Doomsday Clock.
Members of BAS stand beside the Doomsday Clock in 2024. (Photo: CNN).
The BAS representative also mentioned that technologies such as advanced biological research and misinformation pose risks that could push humanity towards self-destruction. “BAS considers developments across various fields, including a range of events or factors related to the potential for nuclear war, climate change, pandemics or biological weapons, and emerging technologies that could affect peace and stability,” said Herbert Lin, a scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University.
Among the new technologies that could potentially devastate the world, artificial intelligence (AI) stands out, according to Lin. The rapid advancement of AI last year suggests that 2024 could be the year it significantly alters human life.
BAS established the Doomsday Clock in 1947 to warn of the threats posed by nuclear weapons, initially set at 7 minutes to midnight. The clock quickly moved to 3 minutes to midnight two years later following the Soviet Union’s first successful nuclear bomb test during the Cold War with the United States. It advanced another minute closer to midnight in 1953 after the first hydrogen bomb was detonated but returned to the 7-minute mark in 1960. The hands of the clock even moved away from midnight to 17 minutes in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which mandated reductions in long-range nuclear weapons in both the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
The clock returned to a warning of two minutes in 2018 for the first time since 1960 due to the world entering a new arms race, according to BAS President and CEO Rachel Bronson. Over the past six years, the clock has gradually moved closer to midnight. The decision to set the clock at 90 seconds to midnight last year was primarily based on humanity’s inadequate action on climate change and fears stemming from the conflict in Ukraine. This year, experts have also considered the rapid advancements in AI.
Members of the BAS board hope that the new announcement will prompt governments around the world to take action. “There have been some achievements, such as record investments in renewable energy and national and international policy frameworks surrounding technologies like AI and biological research. However, no efforts have progressed quickly enough,” Bronson stated.
