Countries in Southeast Asia are expected to experience higher than normal rainfall in the last months of 2024, threatening agricultural, tourism, and industrial activities.
The western region of Singapore recorded one of its heaviest rains in 40 years on October 14, causing widespread flooding.
According to a report from the Public Utilities Board (PUB), thunderstorms covered Singapore from 8:15 AM to 1:50 PM on October 14, delivering approximately 134.8 mm of rain. “This amount of rain is equivalent to 80% of Singapore’s average rainfall for October and ranks among the highest daily rainfall totals since 1978,” PUB stated.
Not only Singapore, but other Southeast Asian countries will also see higher than normal rainfall in the last months of 2024, which poses threats to agricultural, tourism, and industrial activities already disrupted by a series of strong storms this year.
Bloomberg news agency quoted forecasts from the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center indicating that the cause is the forming La Niña phenomenon.
Severe flooding in Elephant Nature Park in Chiang Mai province, Thailand on October 4. (Photo: REUTERS).
Mr. Takahisa Nishikawa, head of forecasting operations at The Weather Company (USA), predicted that Vietnam would face more tropical storms than usual from now until April next year, with risks of flooding and landslides. The northern and central regions are expected to be the most affected. Increased rainfall will also hinder recovery efforts from the damage caused by Storm Yagi in September.
Meanwhile, Thailand has suffered approximately 30 billion baht (nearly 900 million USD) in damages due to prolonged flooding in the north, particularly in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces. The Ping River’s record-high levels have submerged many popular tourist spots in Chiang Mai and forced many businesses to close.
The Bangkok Post reported on October 14 that the Thai government is set to implement measures to revive the tourism sector in the northern region. Currently, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports of Thailand plans to support around 10,000 tourists to the affected areas with 400 baht per person (about 11 USD), starting from December 1.
Other support measures are being considered, including emergency loans for tourism businesses, tax reductions, and cuts in utility costs (electricity, water, internet, etc.). The tourism sector contributes about 20% to Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The Philippines is also struggling to recover after enduring a series of strong storms, specifically Gaemi in July, Yagi in September, and Krathon in October. The Philippines may see higher than average rainfall from now until the end of the year, with rainfall potentially exceeding the average by up to 160% in January next year, according to the country’s meteorological agency.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a 60% chance that La Niña will form by the end of 2024. In contrast to El Niño, La Niña typically increases rainfall in Eastern Australia, Southeast Asia, and India while decreasing rainfall in the Americas.
Warm ocean waters pushed by La Niña contribute to increased storms in this region and cause them to approach the coastline more closely.
Mr. Benjamin Horton, Director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, emphasized: “Warmer seas give storms more energy to become stronger. Places like Taiwan and Vietnam are likely to see more super typhoons.“
A somewhat “comforting” note is that scientists agree this time, La Niña may be weaker and shorter-lived than initially predicted. According to a report from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on October 15, La Niña may only “last” until February next year instead of March as previously estimated.
