Scientists Run Supercomputer Simulation Describing Earth’s Sixth Mass Extinction by 2100.
In a study published at the United Nations COP15 biodiversity conference in Canada, scientists have warned that Earth is on the brink of experiencing its sixth mass extinction.
According to the study, we are expected to lose about 10% of plant and animal species by 2050. This percentage will increase to 27% by 2100. Scientists predict that the causes of extinction will be climate change, rampant resource exploitation, and changes in land use.
According to scientists, climate change could wipe out over 25% of the world’s plant and animal species. (Image: Pixabay).
Simulating a “Virtual Earth”
Dr. Giovanni Strona from the University of Helsinki (Finland) and Professor Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University (Australia) utilized a supercomputer to create a “Virtual Earth” to simulate a global extinction event caused by climate change.
They state that this tool “can predict extinction events anywhere on Earth”, thus showcasing the future of global biodiversity.
Scientists noted that previous approaches to assess extinction risk over the next century have been flawed as they overlooked cases of “co-extinction.”
Sea otters resting in a kelp forest off the coast of California. (Image: Nicole LaRoche).
Professor Bradshaw explained that co-extinction is the phenomenon where the disappearance (extinction) or decline of one species leads to the disappearance or extinction risk of another species that depends on it.
“Think of a predator losing its prey. If the prey species goes extinct due to climate change, the predator will also face extinction because it loses its food source. This phenomenon is known as co-extinction,” Professor Bradshaw noted.
“Another example of co-extinction is when a parasite loses its host or a flowering plant loses its pollinators due to climate change. Each species is dependent on other species in some way,” he continued.
According to him, co-extinction is a major cause of global biodiversity loss.
Illustration of the causes of animal extinction. (Image: ThoughtCo).
To arrive at this conclusion, the two researchers built a virtual Earth with a network of species that are tightly interconnected. They then applied climate changes to the system to make future predictions.
“Essentially, we created a virtual world and mapped the connections of thousands of species. From there, we can assess their adaptability to different climate scenarios, while linking to other factors to predict extinction likelihood,” Dr. Strona explained.
The Sixth Mass Extinction
The world has experienced five mass extinctions throughout history. Experts assert that Earth is entering its sixth mass extinction, the first since the age of dinosaurs.
According to the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, over 42,100 species are currently threatened with extinction.
“We will witness the disappearance of thousands of plant and animal species, from small orchids and insects to iconic species like elephants and koalas. Children born 70 years from now may never get to see these species,” Professor Bradshaw stated.
Representative of the COP15 presidency, Chinese Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu, speaking at the conference. (Image: Reuters).
In the past century, an average of two vertebrate species have gone extinct each year. A 2017 study declared that the “loss of biodiversity” among wildlife in recent decades is the primary reason for the impending mass extinction.
Therefore, at the United Nations biodiversity summit on December 19, nations endorsed a historic agreement to reverse decades of environmental degradation threatening species and ecosystems worldwide.
The agreement aims to protect 30% of land and marine areas by 2030, with hundreds of billions of dollars each year allocated for the conservation of species and wild areas. The draft specifies the goal of restoring 30% of degraded natural areas, significantly higher than the original target of 20%.
After four years of intense negotiations, over 190 countries came together to support the agreement mediated by China to save land, oceans, and species from pollution, degradation, and climate crisis.
