Will these modern “Noah’s Arks” come to fruition as quickly as billionaire Elon Musk aims for?
May 31 marked the 10th anniversary of the completion of SpaceX’s first Dragon mission, known as COTS2, to and from the International Space Station (ISS).
Just a few years prior, on September 28, 2008, the Dragon mission reached Earth orbit during its fourth launch with the Falcon 1 rocket.
Despite criticisms regarding PR activities and “exaggerated” claims about his timelines, it is hard to dispute the impressive achievements of SpaceX CEO Elon Musk when it comes to spacecraft. His most ambitious claims have left even skeptical space enthusiasts in awe.
However, Musk’s latest statement shared on Twitter on June 2, along with a recent presentation at SpaceX, may spark controversy and skepticism.
The plan is to “build 1,000+ Starship spacecraft to transport life to Mars. Essentially, these are modern Noah’s Arks,” Musk wrote, reiterating a statement he made during an interview with TED program curator Chris Anderson. In that interview, Musk emphasized that SpaceX aims to achieve this goal by 2050.
Elon Musk announces SpaceX plans to build 1,000 Starship spacecraft and will launch three missions daily to Mars. (Photo: Insider)
So far, SpaceX has yet to launch any Mars spacecraft into orbit, but they hope to conduct their first flight this summer, despite NASA continuing to delay its environmental assessment of the Starship.
Starship will consist of two parts
- The first part is a 70-meter tall first-stage rocket booster powered by 32 Raptor 2 engines.
- The second part is the Starship itself, which is 50 meters tall and will be mounted on top of the first stage. In his presentation at SpaceX, Musk also revealed the deployment method for Starship 2.0.
The main reason Musk’s plans may be divisive is that even by SpaceX’s high standards, they still lack practicality. A key indicator of this is Musk’s claims being unrelated to NASA’s Mars program.
While Musk claims SpaceX will send 1 million people to Mars by 2050, NASA only aims to send the first humans to the “Red Planet”—most likely with SpaceX’s assistance—during the 2030s and 2040s. NASA has also initiated a multi-year scientific research campaign to prepare for this ambitious program.
Recently, NASA announced 50 key objectives they hope to achieve before and during the first Mars mission. This plan outlines and highlights the extreme challenges they will face, such as astronauts’ muscular systems deteriorating to the point where they may struggle to walk upon their first arrival on Mars.
“Colonizing” Mars will be an extremely slow process, fraught with challenges and not without mistakes. Therefore, the first individuals NASA intends to send to the “Red Planet” will be trained scientists and experts.
In contrast, Musk recently stated that “virtually anyone” willing to spend up to $100,000 on a Starship ticket could go to Mars.
Another reason is the cost issue. Musk has estimated the cost to build a Mars city could reach $10 trillion. These calculations are based on the assumption that a city would require one million tons of goods from Earth to operate at a minimum—according to Musk in a July 2019 interview with CBS News.
In a conversation with Chinese billionaire Jack Ma in August of that year, Musk claimed that this project would cost between 0.5% to 1% of the world’s total product (global GDP). This figure lies somewhere between the amount humanity spends on cosmetics and healthcare.
It is unclear how SpaceX will finance the project, as their rockets launched in 2018 only generated $2 billion in revenue. Starlink, the company’s satellite internet constellation, is expected to help bridge the gap, with an internal estimate suggesting it could generate $20 billion in revenue by 2025.
According to I.E, it can be understood that the CEO of SpaceX is busy spreading humanity’s dream of a spacefaring civilization, but the “Mars 2050” claim risks putting Musk in a situation similar to what he faced with Tesla regarding Level 5 autonomous driving capabilities. The more unsustainable claims he makes, the more people will forget how far SpaceX has come in such a short time.
