We often hear that natural resources are finite, while land is limited and the population is growing continuously, leading to an increase in the consumption of natural resources. It is estimated that by 2060, the Earth will run out of oil, in about 45 years natural gas will be depleted, and approximately 170 years later, coal will be exhausted. So what will happen when the Earth runs out of natural resources, particularly oil used to produce gasoline for internal combustion engines?
During the last 50 years of the 20th century (1950 – 2000), humanity consumed more natural resources than the total amount consumed throughout human history before 1950. In the 1970s, scientists predicted that many types of materials would be depleted due to excessive extraction and consumption by humans.
It is estimated that by 2060, the Earth will run out of oil.
An article published in 1972 predicted that by the end of the 20th century, humanity would exhaust precious metals such as gold, silver, copper, mercury, zinc, etc. However, we still mine these metals today and use them daily, with no signs of depletion. So what about crude oil?
The terms “exhausted,” “depleted” imply that we have completely extracted everything, leaving nothing underground to dig or pump out for use. In reality, humanity has not yet explored all the depths beneath our feet. Many natural mineral deposits remain unexploited. The farther and deeper the deposits are, the greater the effort and costs involved in exploration and extraction.
For instance, if one day OPEC declares that they have extracted all the oil and there are no drops left, there would still be many untapped oil fields around the world, some of which may not even be known yet. The issue that arises at this point is that the costs of exploring and extracting oil fields will significantly increase.
Suppose the current average cost to extract one barrel of crude oil is $40. When OPEC announces that they are out of oil, other parties will need to ramp up extraction to compensate for the production lost by OPEC. They will have to venture further, partner with more countries, and collaborate with numerous entities to discover new oil fields.
The result is that the cost of extracting one barrel of oil will rise; filling a barrel may cost $50, then $60, $70, and gradually up to $100 per barrel, or even $1,000 per barrel as oil reserves become scarcer and harder to extract. Moreover, if the extraction costs rise to a certain level, they will exceed the profit margin, meaning that extracting oil for sale could still result in losses.
In reality, many natural mineral deposits remain unexploited.
The consequences of this will lead to rising costs in other areas, and the prices of other types of natural resources will also increase to compensate for the shortage of oil. In reality, oil is not truly depleted; it is just located too far or too deep to extract, or if it can be extracted, the costs are extremely high because they must be shared among all parties involved in the extraction.
This is precisely why governments around the world are pushing for the development of clean and renewable energy sources to replace oil and coal. Simply put, wealthy countries may not need to worry yet, but for poorer, underdeveloped, and developing nations, the story is different. High oil prices mean that people cannot afford to pay 100,000 VND for a liter of gasoline.
