The first planetary defense mission of China is gradually taking shape, aiming to both observe and impact a near-Earth asteroid with a single launch.
New information about the Earth protection mission indicates that China is not only seeking solutions to threats from Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) but also using the initial test mission to learn about the Solar System, according to Planetary.
Simulation of an asteroid approaching Earth. (Photo: Science Times).
China is increasingly interested in planetary defense. In 2023, preliminary information indicated that the first kinetic impactor test mission would target 2019 VL5, with a launch time set for 2025. The new proposal is based on preliminary studies identifying 2015 XF261, a 30-meter diameter near-Earth asteroid, as the target for a dual mission of observation and impact. The final target selection will be refined based on the launch time, expected before 2030. Wu Weiren, a lunar science expert and director of the Deep Space Exploration Laboratory (DSEL), shared in April 2024 that the mission is projected to launch around 2027. The launch timing depends on the target’s orbit, mission objectives, and readiness levels.
Although it is unclear why the China National Space Administration (CNSA) changed the mission target from 2019 VL5 to 2015 XF261, one possible reason could be the complex nature of the mission. The plan involves sending an observation spacecraft to the target asteroid first to conduct close flybys and observations from orbit to understand its size, shape, composition, internal structure, and thermal radiation. Subsequently, a collision spacecraft will perform the impact test on the asteroid and assess the consequences over a 6 to 12-month period to ensure confidence in the impact.
This one-time launch mission plan resembles a combination of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which impacted the small asteroid Dimorphos, and the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Hera mission, which is responsible for observing the binary asteroid system afterward. The key difference is that 2015 XF261 is significantly smaller than Dimorphos, and detailed close-up observations will be made beforehand, which will offer greater scientific value during and after the impact. Estimating the mass, density, and porosity of the asteroid may reveal insights into its formation and evolution, thereby providing clues about the origins and development of the Solar System.
The spacecraft’s instruments include spectral and 3D laser detectors, color cameras, radar, dust and particle analyzers. A high-resolution color camera will be used to observe and model the surface features of the asteroid, aiding in the selection of the impact point. Radar will be employed to examine the interior of the asteroid and model its structure based on signals reflected from the asteroid. Finally, the particle analyzer will focus on the composition and environmental impact of dust and particles.
