According to Mr. Hoàng Phúc Lâm, Deputy Director of the National Center for Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting, this is the third consecutive year that weather conditions have remained in a La Niña state, which is rare. He warns of a high likelihood of natural disasters at the end of the year due to heavy rainfall and storms combined with cold air, which could lead to very heavy rain in the Central region.
During the “Workshop on Coordinating Guidance for Exploiting Meteorological and Hydrological Information and Updating Disaster Progress for 2022” organized by the General Department of Meteorology and Hydrology on the morning of June 16, Mr. Hoàng Phúc Lâm stated that the ENSO phenomenon is likely to continue in a La Niña state until the end of 2022, with a probability of about 55-65%.
“This is the third consecutive year that Vietnam has been affected by La Niña – this phenomenon is uncommon, as the ENSO cycle usually lasts two years. The forecast indicates that the number of storms will be above average and has been adjusted upward compared to previous forecasts,” Mr. Hoàng Phúc Lâm noted.
Forecasts indicate that from now until the end of 2022, there will be approximately 10 to 12 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea, with about 4 to 6 potentially affecting the mainland of Vietnam, which is close to the average for many years during this period (the historical average is about 12-14 storms per year, with direct impacts from about 5-7 storms). There is a risk of complex storm movements and a high frequency of storms in the last months of 2022.
During the rainy season months (from July to September), the rainfall in the Northern region is expected to be at or above the historical average. Conversely, in the Central Highlands and Southern regions from July to September, rainfall is expected to be below the historical average.
This year marks the third consecutive year that weather conditions have remained in a La Niña state.
“From around October to November, the coastal areas of the Central region and the Central Highlands are forecasted to have higher rainfall than the historical average, with a high risk of intense and continuous heavy rain. There is a high likelihood of natural disasters at the end of the year due to heavy rainfall, storms combined with cold air, which could cause very heavy rain in the Central region. Additionally, we need to be cautious of dangerous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, whirlwinds, and hail across the country,” Mr. Hoàng Phúc Lâm warned.
Regarding temperatures, the average temperature in the Northern region in July is expected to be around the historical average, while in August and September, it will be about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the historical average; from October to December, it will generally be about 0.5 degrees Celsius lower than the historical average.
The Central region’s average temperature in July is expected to be around the historical average, while in August and September, it will be about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the historical average; from October to November, it will generally be about 0.5 degrees Celsius lower than the historical average.
The Central Highlands and Southern regions from July to September are expected to have temperatures generally about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the historical average, while from October to December, temperatures will be around the historical average.
“In the Northern and Central regions, the average temperature in July is expected to be around the historical average, while in August and September, it will be about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the historical average. We should be cautious in July as extreme temperature values may occur in the Northern provinces and North-Central provinces. There is a forecast probability of 70-80% for heatwaves with daily maximum temperatures above 37 degrees Celsius. Heatwaves in the Northern and Central regions may not be as severe or prolonged as in 2021. Cold air may arrive early, and temperatures in the early months of winter in the Northern provinces may be lower than the historical average for this period. This winter’s temperatures are expected to be lower than the historical average,” Mr. Hoàng Phúc Lâm predicted.
To clarify information about the 2022 rainy and storm season, Mr. Mai Văn Khiêm, Director of the National Center for Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting, stated that this year, cold air arrives early, and storm activity is higher, which, combined, will have a more severe impact, creating conditions for rain.
“The continuous La Niña state since 2020, along with such cold phases, increases the likelihood of continuous rain, especially in the Central and South Central regions. This year, it is forecasted that the Northwest Pacific will have strong storms, likely intensifying towards the end of the year, which will affect our country. Continuous rains combined with early cold air will create convergence, leading to very heavy and intense rainfall in the Central region in November,” Mr. Mai Văn Khiêm informed.
Regarding rainfall warnings, representatives from the National Center for Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting stated:
Northern Region
- In July, total rainfall in the Northern region is expected to be higher than the historical average by about 10-20%, with a probability of about 60-70%.
- In August and September, total rainfall in the Northern region is expected to be higher than the historical average by about 5-10%, with a probability of around 60%.
- In October, total rainfall in the Northern region is expected to be higher than the historical average by about 10-25%, with a probability of around 60%. However, the Northwest region may have rainfall lower than the historical average by about 5-15%, with a probability of 65%.
- In November and December, total rainfall in the Northern region is expected to be lower than the historical average, with a probability of about 60-70%.
Central Region
- In July, total rainfall is expected to be lower than the historical average by about 5-15%, with a probability of around 60%.
- In August and September, total rainfall is expected to be approximately the historical average, with a probability of around 60%. However, the Thanh Hóa-Quảng Bình area is expected to be lower by 10-25% compared to the historical average for the same period, with a probability of around 60%.
- In October, total rainfall in the North Central region is expected to be higher than the historical average by about 10-25%, while in the Central and South Central regions, it is expected to be higher by about 30-60%, with some areas exceeding 70%, with a probability of around 70-90%.
- In November 2022, total rainfall in the North Central region is expected to be lower by about 10-25%, with a probability of around 60%. In contrast, in the Central and South Central regions, total rainfall is expected to be higher by about 15-35%, with some areas exceeding 40% compared to the historical average for the same period, with a probability of around 70-90%.
- In December 2022, total rainfall in the Central region is expected to be higher than the historical average by about 10-30%, while in the North Central region, it is expected to be lower than the historical average by about 10-20%, with a probability of around 60-80%.
Central Highlands and Southern Region
- In July and August, total rainfall is expected to be lower by about 10-20% compared to the historical average, with a probability of around 60-70%. In September, total rainfall is expected to be approximately the historical average, with a probability of around 60%.
- In October and November, total rainfall in the Central Highlands is expected to be higher by about 30-60%, with some areas in October exceeding 70%. In the Southern region, total rainfall is expected to be higher by about 10-20% compared to the historical average, with a probability of around 60-70%.
- In December, total rainfall is expected to be higher by about 10-20% compared to the historical average for the same period, with a probability of around 60-70%.
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