A New Period of Earth’s Instability: Is It Affecting Vietnam?

Since the early 20th century, the number of major earthquakes recorded has been increasing significantly. In the early 20th century, strong earthquakes occurred sporadically in the years 1906 (USA), 1923 (Japan), 1960 (Chile), and 1963 (Macedonia).

In the following decades, the frequency of major earthquakes seemed to increase, with significant events in 1970 (Peru), 1972 (Nicaragua), 1976 (Mexico), 1985 (China), 1988 (Armenia), and in 1993 in India.

Since then, the number of major earthquakes has continued to rise. In the last six years of the 1990s, nearly every year experienced significant earthquakes, except for 1996, totaling seven earthquakes. In particular, 1995 saw two major earthquakes and 1999 saw three.

Survivors of the earthquake in Indonesia still in shock (Photo: BTP)

From 2000 to the present, the frequency of major earthquakes has been among the highest in the last century, occurring every year except for 2000.

Since 2001 up to May 27, 2006, when the earthquake in Indonesia occurred, there were 13 recorded major earthquakes. In the first five months of this year, two severe earthquakes occurred. Last year there were three, and the year before that two, and four before that.

Excluding the record earthquake of 9.5 on the Richter scale in 1960 in Chile, scientists have noted that the intensity of earthquakes seems to be increasing over time. Coupled with the increased frequency, geologists are considering a new phase of tectonic shifts in the Earth’s crust.

This hypothesis, though met with skepticism, if realized, would nearly imply that countries bordering major continental plates could experience more earthquakes, especially in the Pacific Ring of Fire.

Indonesia is located in the region known as the Pacific Ring of Fire, which accounts for 90% of the world’s earthquakes.

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Although Vietnam is not adjacent to the Pacific Ring of Fire like Indonesia, it is also in a position identified as at risk. However, in the eyes of Vietnamese scientists, these concerns seem to be viewed as exaggerated.

“The recent earthquake in Indonesia is not particularly special considering that the country lies on another major fault line,” said Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Thuy, Director of the Institute of Geophysics (IoG), Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology.

Doctors treating an injured person. (Photo: AFP)

According to Associate Professor Thuy, if we consider strong earthquakes of 5 on the Richter scale in Indonesia, they occur almost daily. Earthquakes of 6 and above are also quite frequent. In Vietnam, according to Associate Professor Thuy, it falls into the category of countries with low to moderate earthquake levels.

Aside from a few minor earthquakes in May and August 2005 off the coast of Vung Tau, since the beginning of the year, there have been only a few scattered earthquakes reported in the country, with the largest being around 4 on the Richter scale.

The most recent earthquake occurred at 00:00 on April 4, with a magnitude of 4.3 on the Richter scale off the coast of Nam Dinh province, about 100 km from the coast of Hai Hau district.

This earthquake occurred on the Red River fault that extends into the East Sea. Previous records indicate that there have been earthquakes of magnitude 3 in the Nam Dinh sea area. According to predictions from the IoG, earthquakes in this area could reach up to 6 on the Richter scale.

“But that does not mean we should be complacent,” warned Associate Professor Thuy, “Because it will be a long time before humans can accurately predict what will happen.”

Currently, 25 nationwide seismic stations can identify and provide timely warnings for earthquakes from 3 on the Richter scale. However, these stations are not evenly distributed. From Quang Tri down, there are only three stations located in Hue, Da Lat, and Nha Trang. “Therefore, tremors in the South are often not detected as promptly as in the North,” acknowledged Associate Professor Thuy.

With the approval of the Prime Minister in March 2006, the IoG is rapidly developing a project to enhance earthquake and tsunami warning capabilities in Vietnam. Accordingly, a new system of machinery will be installed throughout the country to ensure earthquake warnings from 4 on the Richter scale.

Additionally, a project to establish an earthquake monitoring network valued at 5 million USD, funded by Japan, has been constructed and is currently awaiting approval from Vietnam’s Ministry of Planning and Investment.

Quốc Dũng